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28 Oct 2020
Results in line: normalising in Q4

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Results in line: normalising in Q4
Good set of results
Rice sales have maintained a good pace (+13% in Q3) with a limited impact of perimeter change and branded sales growing above 20% in UK and France, thanks also in part to limited exposure to food service. Pasta grew a healthy 9.2% but was well below the levels seen in H1. EBITDA, despite some rebound in promotions and advertising, maintained positive levels. EBITDA grew c.29% in Q3 with EBITDA margin at 13.2%, practically in line with our estimates. Net debt has been reduced by EUR100m in the year, helped by positive working capital performance due to strong demand and the lower capex due to Covid restrictions.
Raw material prices: Durum better than rice
Raw material rice prices continue to be under pressure: in the US due to the high demand in South America and the impact of Hurricane Laura, while in Europe Italian floods and problems in Spain could reduce the harvest by 10%. Regarding durum wheat, the positive harvest in the US helped to generate lower prices which the company has taken advantage of to increase stocks.
Disposal of Canadian dry pasta business
Before publishing results, Ebro announced the disposal of its dry pasta business in Canada (ex Garofalo) to Barrilla. Ebro will receive c.CAD165m for a business that generates CAD103m sales (2% group). We estimate that this implies c.12x EV/EBITDA, which is a very good price but with limited impact on valuation.
Outlook in line with consensus, which implies normalisation. Underperform reiterated
Ebro guided for FY20 with a top-line range between EUR3.15 bn-EUR3.2bn (Exane EUR3.19bn; Consensus EUR3.2bn) and EBITDA between EUR422m-EUR432m (Exane EUR426m; Consensus EUR428m). This implies a Q4 where sales and EBITDA will be flat vs Q4 19. In our opinion, and despite the company still benefiting from lockdowns and the absence of food service activities, we expect H121 to show double-digit EBITDA declines, below consensus. Remain Underperform.