Auctus on Friday - 10/06/2020

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Positive drilling results at RCS-1 could add further reserves - The RCS-1 well (the second well drilled by Arrow in Colombia this year) has encountered >55 feet of total net pay across six separate oil-bearing reservoirs in the C7, the Gacheta and the Ubaque, between 7,077 feet and 8,105 feet. No reserves were allocated to the Ubaque, C7 and one of the Gacheta sands. Thes

Auctus on Friday - 29/04/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Flow rate at the top end of expectations at important appraisal well - The Anshof-3 well flowed ~75 bbl/d of light oil (and no water) on test from the Eocene reservoir. This has positive implications for production, reserves and the upside case. The flow rate was at the upper end of expectations (40-80 bbl/d). The well has not been acidized yet which could boost production rate b

Q1: working capital not impacting distribution

The results were in line with the consensus with an EBITDA CCS up by 4% qoq at €2.45bn. This was led by the Upstream division, with an EBITDA up by 12% qoq at €1.69bn, thanks to a 30% increase in the oil price and 14% in the gas price. The net debt was higher (€5.9bn, +€150m) on a working capital increase of €1.9bn, impacted by the rise in oil/gas prices.

Auctus on Friday - 08/04/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Looking at E&P Free Cash Flow - While companies still carry hedges contracted at lower prices, we estimate our producer universe will generate ~25% FCF yield (defined as FCF/EV) in 2022 at ~US$100/bbl. At just US$70/bbl, the overall FCF yield is estimated at 15% for 2023 and >20% for 2024. Assuming US$110/bbl, this increases further to ~40% for each of 2023 and 2024. At YE24, balance sheet net cash, after paying shareholder distributio

Auctus on Friday - 18/02/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C: Target price increased from £0.55to £0.70 per share: Very material reserves increase – YE21 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were ~37 mmbbl, 78 mmbbl and147 mmbbl respectively. This represents increases of 68%, 53% and 39% respectively, compared to YE20. The uplift reflects (1) an increase of the original oil in place (1P: +5%, 2P: +7%, 3P: +7%) and (2) an increase in the recovery factors of 18% (from 11%), 22% (from

Q4: production declines, cash generation improves

The results are slightly above consensus with an adjusted EBITDA of €2.35bn (+34% qoq), thanks to the Upstream division (EBITDA of €1.5bn, +39% qoq) on higher oil & gas prices (realised gas prices were up 40% qoq), as well as the Industrial division (EBITDA of €577m, +72% qoq) on higher refining margins (+$1.2/bbl at $4.4/bbl) more than offsetting the energy costs. The company guides for an additional share buy-back programme (50mln shares) if macro conditions remain favourable (oil above $70/bb

Auctus on Friday - 21/01/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Positive logging results at Anshof-3 – Logging results from the Anshof-3 well confirmed 2.5-4 m of productive net pay at the primary Eocene oil target and 14 m of net gas pay at the Miocene sands. The secondary Cenomanian oil zone is not likely to be productive at this location due to low permeability (this is not a surprise). The Eocene net reservoir thickness at Anshof-3 locati

Auctus on Friday - 26/11/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Farm-out of a small portion of drilling prospect in Upper Austria showcases the acreage’s quality – ADX is farming out 20% of the Anshof prospect in Upper Austria to ASX listed Xstate Resources. In return Xstate will fund 40% of the cost of the Anshof exploration well with a cap of EUR0.72 mm net to Xstate (corresponding to a gross well cost of EUR1.8 mm). Xstate could also fund

Q3: distribution improves

Adjusted net income was slightly above consensus, with gains in Upstream on higher oil and gas prices as well as in the Commercial division, mainly due to higher sales volumes in Mobility. This supports a dividend increase of 5% (to €0.63 per share) and a buy-back programme of 35m shares (c. €400m). All in all, positive results with a distribution that moves ahead of the initial plan (which was guiding for a stable dividend for 2021 and 2022).

Auctus on Friday - 29/10/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: 3Q21 results – 3Q21 production in Austria was 275 boe/d, below our forecasts of ~315 boe/d due to well downtime. A well workover programme has started in October to add 100-150 boe/d. The Anshof-1 exploration well is expected to be spudded in December. An updated reserves report is expected in the coming weeks. The green Energy project is on track and engineering, planning and p

Auctus on Friday - 08/10/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target of A$0.040 per share: Agreement with major wind power provider is game changing for ADX’s green H2 business – ADX has signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with Windkraft Simonsfeld (WKS) for the supply of green electricity and the development of a green H2 production and underground storage project in Austria. Definitive agreements are expected to be signed by December. WKS is a major Austria-based Euro

Q2: strong gains in Industrial

All in all, a decent release, with the Industrial division showing stronger results. In Petrochemicals, the company benefits from exceptional margins. The International Petrochemical Margin indicator is up 45% qoq (€1,537/t) and up 74% yoy. In Refining, the margin was also up by $1.3/bbl (to $1.5/bbl), but remains below the group target for FY ($2/bbl). The company believes margins have reached an inflection, with capacity being rationalised. Over the long term, the group expects the European re

Auctus on Friday - 30/07/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C: Target of A$0.040 per share: High impact newsflow in 2H21 - 2H21 will be very important for the company with significant upcoming newsflow. In our view, the most meaningful eventis the drilling of the Anshoff well in Austria. We were previously anticipating that the company would need a farm-in partner to fund the well. However, in the context of the current high oil price, >A$4 mm in cash at the end of June and

Auctus on Friday - 09/07/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) C; Restarting in Colombia. New team. New focus – Arrow Exploration is a C$7 mm market cap E&P focused on Colombia with 7 mmboe of 2P reserves and ~535 boe/d production. While many of the early stage companies of a decade ago such as GeoPark, Parex,, Canacol or Frontera have become larger independents, the environment for start-ups in Colombia remains fertile and Arrow is one of the few micro cap companies th

Auctus on Friday - 18/06/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Challenger Energy (CEG LN)C; Target of 12p per share: Drilling update in Trinidad - The Saffron well penetrated various Middle Cruse zones including hydrocarbons zones as prognosed pre-drill, and with drilling rates and impact on surrounding clays and mobile shales improved significantly from Saffron-1 owing to the use of synthetic-based muds and a solid foundation for drilling design in any future field development. Initial petrophysi

IOG - Forecast and valuation update

Forecast and valuation update

SHORE CAPITAL - SAVANNAH ENERGY+ (SAVE, 40p, Under Review) – FY21 results; completion of Chad-Cameroon entry expected in Q3

Exceptional transformation… and it may be just a beginning

With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market

IOG - Production update

Production update

Pantheon Resources (PANR) - Significant Increase in Fair Value Estimate

We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.

Cenkos: Chariot Ltd -- Fast-Tracking the Anchois Development

Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems

Arrow Exploration - RCS-1 flow testing results

RCS-1 flow testing results

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc --Commencement of Drilling Programme

Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 0.72 mmbbl sales will trigger a US$60 mm payment to PetroTal earlier than expected

• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened. • As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time. • PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r

Cenkos: Wentworth Resources Plc -- 7.1% Yield and Growth

Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th

Vanchem Kiln 3 up and running as path mapped to longer-term consolidated target of 8,000t V pa

Completion of commissioning of Kiln 3 at Vanchem last month keeps Bushveld on track to end 2022 with a sustainable production run rate of 5,000-5,400t V pa, a solid platform from which to refocus on longer-term growth. Fully utilising the vast array of processing infrastructure at Vanchem to treat feed from an expanded mining and ore concentration operation at Vametco makes a lot of sense given the fixed component of costs at the former and the large mineral resource at the latter. Bushveld’s re

SolGold: Model update following PFS filing; de-risking continues with optimisations expected by year end

We have updated our valuation for SolGold (“SOLG”) following the filing of the Cascabel PFS technical report. The changes result in a US$3.6bn NPV8% and 22% IRR (immediately pre-capex) at US$8,500/t Cu and US$1,850/oz Au, driving a modest cut in our target to 85p/sh (Jun’23E) from 101p. Nonetheless, we view this as a solid base case, with tangible potential upside through: inclusion of the open-pit Tandayama-America (“TAM”) deposit 3km away; additional caves and throughput capacity to capture th

Morning Note – 6 July 2022

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 28/06/2022

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: Raven Property Group has left the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Company is proposing to change its name to Fiinu Group plc. Fiinu intends to be a provider of a consumer banking product, the Plugin Overdraft ®, which is designed to provide customers with an overdraft facility without having to change their current account or req

WH Ireland: Savannah Resources (SAV) - Locked cycle flotation tests confirms recoveries and grades

Savannah, which operates the Barroso lithium mine project in Portugal, reports today the results of its locked cycle test to determine optimal flotation reagents to confirm lithium recoveries and spodumene concentrate grades. Savannah is aiming for a 5.5%Li2O concentrate grade with a near 80% recovery. The reported work confirms that these should be possible and that in larger scale, bulk testing these parameters may improve. The work also highlights that there are still optimisations to be h