Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on REPSOL SA. We currently have 16 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
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Confirming its exploration quality
15 Mar 17
Repsol announced last week an important discovery in US onshore in Alaska. It is the largest oil discovery in US onshore conventional for the last 30 years. The Horseshoe-1 and 1A wells drilled during the 2016-17 winter campaign confirm the Nanushuk play as a significant emerging play in Alaska’s North Slope. The contingent resources identified with the existing data in Repsol and Armstrong Energy’s blocks in the Nanushuk play in Alaska could amount to c.1.2 billion barrels of recoverable light oil. Repsol holds a 25% working interest in the Horseshoe discovery and a 49% working interest in the Pikka Unit. Armstrong holds the remaining working interest and is currently the operator. Preliminary development concepts for Pikka anticipate first production there from 2021, with a potential rate approaching 120,000 barrels of oil per day. The Horseshoe-1 discovery well was drilled to a total depth of 6,000 ft (1,828 metres) and encountered more than 150 ft of net oil pay in several reservoir zones in the Nanushuk section. The Horseshoe-1A sidetrack was drilled to a total depth of 8,215 ft and encountered more than 100 ft of net oil pay in the Nanushuk interval as well.
First view : above expectations on downstream
23 Feb 17
Repsol reported its Q4 40% above expectations on an adjusted basis. Net income came in at €698m compared to €500m expected. The upstream division reported a gain for the first time since the Talisman acquisition but the surprise come from the Refining division which didn’t suffer like the other oil majors. Higher volumes in Refining, higher margins in Chemicals and higher results in the Commercial businesses were partially offset by lower results in Trading and Gas & Power.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
08 Dec 16
Madalena Energy (MVN CN) (not covered): Transaction in Argentina | Tag Oil (TAO CN); BUY, C$1.25: successfully tests Cardiff and Supplejack in New Zealand | LEKOIL (LEK LN) (not covered): Otakikpo Production Update in Nigeria | LEKOIL (LEK LN) (not covered): Otakikpo Production Update in Nigeria
First view: small miss on earnings, more cost cutting
03 Nov 16
The company report an adjusted net income of €307m vs. €320m expected. By business units: 1) Upstream’s adjusted net income was a loss of €28m, much better than a year ago (€-395m) but lower than the €5m loss expected. Production was up 3%. 2) Downstream’s adjusted net income was €395m, down 42% yoy vs. €385m expected. The lower refining margin decreased operating income by €289m, Chemicals generated a negative effect of €45m in the operating income while Trading’s and Gas&Power’s operating income had a €24m negative impact. The group also benefited from the sale of its stake in Gas Natural. Special items in Q3 16 included a net gain of €180m, mainly due to the sale of a 10% stake in Gas Natural SDG and a partial sale of the piped LPG business offset by the impacts of currency devaluation in Venezuela and rig stand-by costs. The group’s net debt at the end of Q3 16 stood at €9.9bn, €1.7bn lower than in Q2 16 thanks to divestments in the quarter, and good cash flow from operations.
More cost reductions and good operational performance
22 Aug 16
We come back to the Q2 16 results published at the end of July. At that time, as a reminder, the group reported an adjusted net income of €345m for Q2 16, up 11% yoy, perfectly in line with the market’s expectations, but above our own estimates (10% below consensus on cautious synergies and costs). Upstream In the upstream division, adjusted net income was €46m vs a loss of €48m a year ago, mainly due to lower exploration expenses (+€144m), higher volumes (+€290m) thanks to acquired assets and a positive tax effect from the appreciation of local currencies. Lower crude oil had a –€372m impact compared to last year. Average production was 687kbpd, up 33% yoy, due to a full quarter of volumes from acquired assets vs. a partial contribution last year. It was also helped by the ramp-up of Cardon in Venezuela, Sapinhoa in Brazil and the contribution from Gudrun in Norway. Some maintenance work and temporary suspensions due to low prices explained the 2% decrease vs. Q1 16. In terms of production, in Brazil, the hook-up of the FPSO at Lapa (break-even close to $55/bbl) has been concluded and first oil is expected to come one quarter ahead of schedule. In the UK, the rising costs with capex and opex are below plan and production is ahead of schedule. In North America, production at Marcellus has increased yoy, while reducing drilling activity to one rig with a cash break-even close to $2/mmbtu. In Venezuela, the teams are working to solve the issue with the escrow account in order to make the JV work financially. Downstream In downstream, adjusted net income was down 14% yoy to €378m on lower volumes produced, lower margins and maintenance in the refining system (-€224m). On the positive side, Chemicals, Marketing and the LPG businesses improved. The schedule of maintenance stoppages at Cartagena and Tarragona were completed on time and on budget. The planned outages reduced the group’s distillation and conversion utilisation during the quarter. The group achieved an actual refining margin of $0.6, $0.1 over an indicator. The group has completed its major maintenance programme for 2016 and expects its actual margin to recapture the full benefit of its industry-leading facilities in the second half of the year. In Chemicals, sales have again been strong and the margin should remain high for the rest of the year. Spanish motor fuel demand maintained its recovery and the market has grown by 3.6% yoy up to the end of May. Gas Natural Fenosa The adjusted net income at Gas Natural Fenosa stood at €96m, down 9% yoy due to lower profits from gas commercialisation, attributable to the current price environment. Cash flow and debt Cash flow from operations was €1.8bn and covered net investment, interest and dividend payments in the first half of the year. Net debt is slightly down compared to Q1 16, from €12bn to €11.7bn. The group’s liquidity at the end of the H1 16 was €6.7bn including drawdown credit lines which represent 1.8x the coverage of short-term maturities. Change in working capital so far in 2016 is €723m, which also explains the small decrease in debt.
27 Mar 17
Elecosoft* (ELCO): Steadily building profits (CORP) | Bioventix* (BVXP): Interim results lead to upgrades (CORP) | Hurricane Energy (HUR): Halifax discovery (BUY) | KBT Business Technology* (KBT): interims and contract win (CORP) | Independent Oil & Gas* (IOG): Licence updates (CORP)
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
27 Mar 17
Amerisur Resources (AMER LN)6; HOLD, £0.30: Reduced 2017e production outlook and year-end 2016 reserves | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN)8 ; BUY, C$3.50: Reports 4Q16 results and remains on track for first production from Turkey in mid-2017e | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN) (not covered): Halifax well update in the UK | Cairn Energy (CNE LN): BUY, £2.90: Update on the VR-1 well in Senegal by Far (FAR AU) (Not covered) | Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN) (not covered): Divestment of Gabonese assets
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.