Restructuring benefits and good execution drive a profitability beat

Alfa Laval’s Q3 figures were in line with the consensus on orders, marginally below on sales, but ahead of on profits. Organic order growth came from the Energy and Marine division, while the sales growth came from backlog execution amidst easing supply chains. The adjusted EBITA increased due to higher sales and the benefits of the previously-announced restructuring. CFO and FCF showed good improvements. For Q4 23, the company expects the demand dynamics to remain similar to those of the Q3.

Demand holding up well, Q2 momentum looks set to continue into H2

Alfa Laval printed another strong result, beating consensus across the board. Order growth came from the Energy and Marine divisions alongside good growth in Service. Revenues increased on the back of strong backlog execution. This increased invoicing led to an increase in adjusted EBITA and net income. CFO and FCF generation improved due to somewhat better working capital management. For Q3 23, the company expects the demand dynamics to remain unchanged but sees them being affected by seasonali

Convincing order and profitability beat along with strong invoicing lift 2023 expectations

Alfa Laval delivered a strong beat versus consensus estimates across the board. Order growth was supported by solid demand across two out of three divisions and good growth in Service. Revenue growth was driven by stabilising supply-chains which led to a level of backlog execution. Consequently, adjusted EBITA was also lifted with attractive margins backed by price and volume growth. CFO and FCF were decent but inventory levels remained high. For Q2, the demand is expected to be sequentially low

Ending 2022 on a strong note; 2023 looks promising

Alfa Laval’s Q4 figures beat consensus across the board. This result also led to a beat in the 2022 figures. Orders and revenues grew in almost all end-markets and across most geographies. Service growth was decent. Adjusted EBITA increased due to higher invoicing. The group also announced a new investment programme for the next 3-4 years and the board will propose a dividend of SEK6.0. The demand in Q1 is expected to be somewhat similar to that in Q4.

Q3 profit misses estimates; restructuring programme launched

Alfa Laval’s Q3 figures were above consensus estimates on orders, in-line on revenues but short on profitability. Orders and revenues grew by double-digits with solid demand across most geographies and several end-markets. Service growth was also strong. Adjusted EBITA, however, was impacted by a softer performance in two of the three divisions. CFO and FCF were lower due to increased levels of inventory. In Q4, the group expects demand to be fairly similar to its Q3 level.

Building on a decent start; new CFO from November

Alfa Laval’s Q2 results were above consensus estimates on all fronts. Orders and revenues recorded double-digit growth with demand coming from most end-markets and all key geographies. Adjusted EBITA also grew by double-digits although margins slightly contracted. The aftermarket business performed better qoq. CFO and FCF, though, were weaker due to an inventory build-up. The group also announced a new CFO replacing Jan Allde from November. For the Q3, the group expects demand to be slightly low

Decent start overshadowed by a potentially weak outlook

Alfa Laval’s Q1 figures were a mixed bag vs. consensus expectations. While orders were ahead of consensus, revenues were slightly below and adjusted EBITA in line. The demand came from most end markets and geographies. The aftermarket business performed decently. The group also signed an agreement to buy Desmet, which should become a part of the group in Q2. For Q2, the group expects demand to be slightly lower than in Q1.

Visible green shoots bode well for 2022

While Alfa Laval’s full-year numbers were broadly in line with expectations, Q4 was the strongest quarter of the year and better than Q4 20. Order intake was robust for the majority of 2021 even as revenues and adjusted EBITA were flat. The aftermarket business grew strongly as well. The board will propose a dividend of SEK6.0 and to buy back up to 5% of issued capital. The outlook for Q1 22 is expected to be better than this quarter.

Delivering better on profitability

Alfa Laval’s results were a mixed bag when compared to the consensus but showed clear growth over Q3 20. Orders were again the strongest part of the release, whereas revenues and adjusted EBITA rose in single-digits. The service business also registered all round growth. Profitability continued to be better than expected. For Q4, the group expects an environment similar to Q3. This would imply that revenues are likely to decline over 2020 but profitability will clearly be better.

Order book building up, but growth is in 2022

Alfa Laval’s Q2 results were at par with expectations but below last year’s Q2 figures with the exception of orders, which were particularly strong. Revenues and adjusted EBITA declined slightly over the last year. CFO, though, declined by 50% due to higher working capital requirements. Margins were a touch above the previous quarter. Considering Q2 figures, it appears that growth rates are likely to be flat in 2021 but higher than expected in 2022.

At par with expectations

Alfa Laval’s Q1 results were broadly in line with our and consensus expectations but much lower when compared to the year before. Orders, sales, and adjusted EBITA, all declined by mid-teen percentages. The positive, however, was a similar level of CFO despite the decline in operating performance. Margins, too, improved to some extent as a result of the cost actions. No major changes for now but we see 2021 leaning more towards H2 than H1.

Nothing out of the ordinary

Alfa Laval’s Q4 and FY20 figures were pretty much in line with our expectations. Revenues and orders improved sequentially but were down yoy. Nevertheless, the group benefited from its cost-saving efforts and was able to expand margins, even if only marginally. Of the group’s three divisions, Food & Water recovered the most and helped the group achieve a reasonable showing.

Weak Q3 as expected

Alfa Laval’s Q3 figures were weak and in line with our expectations. Despite Net sales and adj. EBITA being lower by 8% yoy, margins largely remained flat showing that the cost programme is bearing fruit.

Better-than-expected figures

Alfa Laval posted better than expected Q2 20 figures. The recent cost programme implemented by Alfa Laval to protect the group’s profitability is bearing fruit: the EBITA margin improved to 17.2% (+70bp yoy).

Rather solid figures

Alfa Laval reported rather solid results given the current situation, with both orders and revenues remaining resilient. Management decided to withdraw the dividend in order to protect cash and it expects demand in the second quarter to be lower than in the first quarter.

Supreme (SUP LN) - Initiation of coverage

FY24 Interim results: A record H1 performance delivered revenue growth of 62.5% to £105.1m (H1 FY23: £64.6m), with growth across all divisions: Batteries +1.4%, Lighting +21.8%, Sports Nutrition & Wellness +17.5%, Vaping +32.5% (ex- ElfBar) and Branded Distribution +798.9%, which includes revenue of £26.4m from the ElfBar distribution opportunity, commenced in June. Adj. EBITDA of £15.2m is +88.0% (H1 FY23: £8.1m) benefitting from higher sales, and operational efficiencies. Adj. PBT of £12.6m is

Brickability Group - A diversified and resilient model

Today’s interims are in line with the recent trading update (11th October) and as such we make no changes to forecasts. Revenue of £324.8m represents a LFL decline of 14%, with EBITDA of £25.6m (H123: £25.5m). This is a strong performance, against what is a challenging market backdrop and underlines the benefits of its diversified operating model and focused strategy. We therefore continue to be surprised at the weakness of the share price, especially in the context of a broader peer group. Putt

Epwin (EPWN LN) - Confirmation of FY23 estimates and buyback announced

Epwin has released a brief trading update confirming that it is on track to meet FY23 estimates. It has also announced its intention to start a buyback, indicating the Board’s confidence in the business going into FY24, despite the volatile operating environment. Zeus leave profit estimates unchanged across the forecast period. This is a continuation of the performance over the last few years, the business has met or beaten consensus numbers since FY20, has not raised equity and managed its bala

Supreme Plc+ (SUP, House Stock at 110p) - Exceptional H1 - 'significantly' raised FY24F guidance

Morning Note – 28 November 2023

Strong H1 results raise full year outlook

The H1 outcome was as indicated in the recent (18 October) Trading Update. Group guidance for the full year is now raised: from revenue of £195m - 205m to £210m - £220m (ED estimate was £204.2m); (adj.) EBITDA from £28m - £30m to £32m - £35m (ED estimate was £29.0m). From incremental EBITDA of c.£4.5m, c.£1.5m arises from core operations and c.£3.5m from the Elf distribution agreement, which supplies retailers including Tesco, Morrisons, One Stop and WHSmith. A series of initiatives – branding

Epwin Group+ (EPWN, House Stock at 67p) - Trading update and share buyback

Making positive progress on all fronts

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

James Cropper + (CRPR, House Stock at 725p) - Directorate changes

Plant Health Care - Outperforming the unprecedented destocking

Plant Health Care has announced a trading update, noting that market conditions in the wider agriculture market have deteriorated but that it continues to outperform the wider market with growth in all regions except the US. In the US, aggressive inventory destocking means orders that were expected in 4Q FY23 are now projected in early FY24. Plant Heath Care therefore now anticipates revenue for FY23 to show flat to modest growth over FY22 (which compares to the crop protection sector where reve

Quadrise+ (QED, House Stock at 1p) - AGM update

SP Angel Morning View: Iron ore rises to $135/t as steel inventories fall

LIBERUM: Severfield: Strong growth prospects

LIBERUM: Yü Group: Eight reasons why Yü is winning