The Capital Goods Data Miner - September 2024

OOur key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Atlas Copco, Metso. We are cautious on: Nibe, SKF, Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - August 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Q2 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Extending the growth streak

Marine drives 6% order beat, EBITA in line. Backlog and exposure secure double-digit earnings growth. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY.

Solid Q2

Heads-up for report 23 July

Q2e: Pace of recovery in question

Orders, sales and earnings flat in Q2e and '24e. Stalling PMIs = '25e recovery risk, sector could flatline. Autoliv up to HOLD, Munters up to BUY; prefer Alfa, Metso, Sandvik.

Margins and backlog drive 23% EBITA increase

Q2 results due on 23 July at 7:30 CET. We expect orders -2%, margin of 17.1% (15.0%). Forceful LT trends justify high valuation.

In it together? Ownership alignment update

Management ownership has increased. Great alignment at ABB, good at Volvo, Alfa, Hexagon, and Metso. Low direct ownership at Epiroc and (despite some improvement) SKF.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - June 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Easily brushing HVAC weakness aside

Orders 11% higher, with Marine and Energy jumping. Sales lagged, but no major concern; adj EBITA +4%. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY

Strong orders, resilient margin despite lower sales

Heads-up for report 25 April

AB Dynamics (ABDP LN) - A haven in a troubled sector

Put mildly the global automotive sector is troubled. The list of challenges is long: stuttering ICE/EV transition, digitalisation, micro mobility car replacement in big cities, lacklustre end-demand, labour disputes, OEM consolidation, social policy and geopolitics. ABD is a haven, offering market-leading testing technology locked into long-cycle, propulsion agnostic, R&D spend by the OEMs; and shielded by regulatory vehicle safety testing requirements. The balance sheet is strong, with c.£30m o

Hercules Site Services - Excellent trading update

Hercules has released a very positive trading update in which it confirms that FY24E revenue is expected to exceed £105m – considerably ahead of our £95.7m forecast. Civil Projects has benefited from the well-documented troubles within the water industry that are requiring increased investment on infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, the number of staff deployed on HS2 continues to rise, and work has recently begun on Sizewell C. Given the group’s continued strong performance, we upgrade our forec

PANMURE LIBERUM: Galliford Try: Strong progress to 2030 targets

Morning Note – 9 October 2024

James Halstead (JHD LN) - FY24 results robust; margins ahead

James Halstead, a manufacturer and international distributor of commercial floor coverings, has this morning announced positive FY24 results, which illustrate a strong margin performance against a wider challenging backdrop for flooring demand. Revenues of £275m (Zeus est. £285m) decreased 9.4% YoY, primarily driven by weaker underlying demand in a number of regions and wider destocking at certain distributors. Despite this, the group made strong progress on gross margins (+603bp to 44.1%), refl

Morning Note – 30 September 2024

SP Angel Morning View: Gold edges higher as Russian Ministry of Finance plans to boost precious metals purchases in 2025

American West Metals (AW1 AU) – Suspension Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Agitation leaching plant production resumed Barrick Gold (GOLD US) – Agreement reached with Mali government Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Solar power plant at the Blanket mine, Zimbabwe Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Bench scale test results from Boland project, South Australia Ionic Rare Earths (IXR AU) – UK funding for REE recycling business Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) –Annual results and share placing Power Nickel (PNPN

Morning Note – 3 October 2024

Zeus Building Products Round-up - 4 October 2024

September was a busy month of companies reporting interim results and providing commentary on the remainder of the year and into 2025. Trying to decipher clear trends proved challenging, with results being mixed across the board. That said, our analysis on the quarterly change in consensus estimates across the four subsectors was encouraging, shown in Exhibit 1. It was promising to see c. 60% of companies reporting inline full year expectations, with c. 15% see upgrades to FY1 expectations. The

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 8 October 2024

8th October 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement ****Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from the current price on the day of publication Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: None What’s baking in the oven? ITF announced:*** Potential** Initial Public Offerings: 30th September 2024: Applied Nutrition, the sports n

PANMURE LIBERUM: Commodity redEYE: Peak conviction, instantly restored

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices soar past record highs following Fed inflation gauge as Central Bank buying accelerates

Galliford Try | FY24 results – top end results, distributions hiked

Another set of results, another beat to expectations. After a particularly strong 2HFY24 performance, Galliford Try beat the top end of consensus expectations for revenue and nearly did the same for adjusted profit before tax, notwithstanding hefty upgrades following the positive FY24 trading update. The strength of the performance was underscored by a 48% hike in the dividend for the year to 15.5p, more than 20% above the top end of consensus, together with the announcement of a further £10m sh

Morning Note – 29 August 2024

PROGRESSIVE: Oxford Metrics - After H1 strength, H2 slows

Oxford Metrics’ trading update for the year ending 30 September 2024 disclosed that results are expected to be materially below market expectations. Full-year revenue is expected to be in the range of £40-42m. We have adjusted our estimates for FY24 revenue to £41.0m and adjusted PBT to £3.4m. While management still sees healthy underlying sales interest in H2, there has been a wider level of caution from customers globally. The balance sheet remains healthy with c.£50m cash at present, and ther