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21 Jan 2021
SMT spinout decision by the summer?

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SMT spinout decision by the summer?
A solid Q4 print; but the profit beat came outside of the core
Sandvik delivered a solid Q4 print; orders, sales and adj. operating profit came in +2%/ +0%/ +8% vs Consensus. In terms of order intake, the stand out was SMRT, where organic order growth came in at 15% - well ahead of the Street - a figure which will likely trigger upgrades to FY21e Consensus for this division. Group sales have been slow to improve, but the exit rate at SMS was encouraging. SMT sales fell less than the Street expected - a surprise that drove the entire Group profit beat - but SMT orders remained weak, and in combination, weak orders and strong sales imply that SMT is burning through its backlog faster than expected - exposing the division to a risk of bigger declines in sales later this year. The core divisions of SMS and SMRT delivered an in line print.
Questions on the shape of the recovery from here; decision on SMT spin set for AGM
During the conf call, analysts asked lots of questions about both the outlook for divisional top lines and the outlook for margins. Management highlighted that as sales recover, so temporary cost savings will need to reverse and also mix will limit margin upside; especially at SMRT - where equipment sales will rise faster than higher margin aftermarket activities. There were a couple of questions regarding the implications of SMT''s weak OandG order intake (the Q4 print contained no large OandG orders). Analysts wanted to understand the future margin impact from the loss of sales within this high margin piece. Management attempted to reassure stating that other parts of SMT, such as Kanthal remain profitable; however there was an acknowledgement that 2021 would be a tough year for SMT. While the incremental targeted cost savings for SMT in 21e are considerable, we would worry that Consensus remains potentially too high for this division. This isn''t a big problem at the Group level, but could a lack of profitability result in a delay...