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What''s the deal here?
The news that Sandvik could consolidate Mining''s crushing and screening markets adds complexity to the investment case. One thing''s for sure... the Rosengren era is well and truly consigned to history. Capital reallocation is now set to dominate the narrative. Expect plenty of questions at next month''s CMD.
A Q3 beat, even as SMS misses
Sandvik beat Q3 Consensus at the EBITA line but orders and sales were, in our view, a little underwhelming. SMS delivered orders, sales and EBIT misses, however, SMS''s profit miss was offset by an SMRT beat, even as its aftermarket orders were down -9%. SMT delivered a PandL beat, but its orders missed.
SMT spin by 2022, ''if circumstances are right''
Within the release, Management committed to the spinout of SMT in 2022, although this will only occur if ''circumstances are right''. Many will want to understand what these ''circumstance'' will need to be, and it''s worth considering that during the conf call, when asked about the outlook for SMT''s Energy (primarily umbilicals) business, the team acknowledged that 2021 will be a very low year. Could it be that the spin is contingent on a nascent recovery for that business by 2022?
A new business unit: Sandvik Rock Processing Solutions - why?
A new business unit, Sandvik Rock Processing Solutions, is set to be separated out of SMRT. Management denied that this separation was a prelude to a sale of these assets. Rather, it appears as though this business will be given access to capital for consolidation of fragmented crushing and screening markets. Management was asked to comment on the scale of possible deals. The CFO confirmed that acquisitions are expected to be bolt-ons.
Updating estimates
We have updated our estimates for recent trading and FX. Our price target remains unchanged at SEK180.