Surprisingly, strong end to the year

Elekta ended FY22 on a healthy note, with Q4 results exceeding street expectations. Sales growth was witnessed in both segments. Importantly, order intake growth was maintained and the dividend was also increased by c.9%. Although profitability was visibly restrained and management expects challenges to remain in Q1, the firm’s innovation prowess, partnership initiatives and promising long-term oncology market dynamics support Elekta’s investment case and, hence, the firm emerges as one of our p

Supply-chain constraints delay performance recovery

Elekta has released its Q3 21/22 results. While healthy order intake growth is a validation of the underlying recovery in oncology treatment markets, the firm’s performance is being restrained by supply-chain constraints (resulting in both lower installations and higher costs). While our estimates should reset lower and the near term could remain uncertain, looking beyond the transient challenges, Elekta’s long-term attractiveness remains intact.

Supply-chain challenges weigh on Q3 results

Elekta reported weak Q3 21/22 preliminary results, with sales well below street expectations. Supply-chain challenges impacted both sales and operating profitability. Although order intake growth was maintained. Overall, while the firm has promising offerings, which should perform well as underlying demand recovers, the near-term (profitability) is expected to remain under pressure and, hence, our estimates should be rationalised.

Business recovery continues, although margin improvements warrant patience

Elekta’s Q2 results (particularly profitability) came in ahead of market expectations. While margin pressure has continued, the sales growth and order-book progression have remained encouraging. As oncology markets continue to recover and the promising market potential remains intact, the likes of Elekta remain in a sweet spot. Although, near-term profitability challenges are likely to persist and re-emerging COVID-19 risks could be another sentiment dampener.

Business recovery overshadowed by temporary cost headwinds

Impact of recovering markets was evident in Elekta’s Q1 sales growth and adjusted order intake numbers. However, the material weakening of margins came as a surprise. While the re-emerging pandemic risks are guided to result in near-term margin pressure, the firm remains on track to unlock healthy sales growth opportunities. Moreover, with better-margin products expected to pick up momentum, the margin progression story remains intact. Add on top the expected recovery in oncology markets, and ou

Mid-term financial targets reiterated

Driven by a growing presence in the underserved emerging markets and an increasing proportion of faster-growing software/ service business in the total mix, Elekta’s sales momentum is set to accelerate in the mid-term. Moreover, innovation and strategic partnerships with industry bigwigs should ensure a sustained market share gain. Top-line growth will be accompanied by margin expansion on the back of operational leverage and efficiency gains, with Unity leading from the front.

Pent-up demand translates into double-digit order growth

Sales momentum decelerated in Q4 as installations took a hit, especially in emerging markets. Profitability came under pressure impacted by higher supply chain and service costs. However, Elekta’s order intake surged 18%, comfortably outpacing the market leader. As pent-up demand is now being unleashed, positive order growth is here to stay. Moreover, as the market situation continues to recover, Elekta’s ability to install systems should improve, thereby pushing up sales. Details on the new mid

Sales accelerate but profitability and order intake misses the bus

Sales momentum accelerated in Q3 driven by improving market conditions and better access to customers’ installation sites – the solutions business grew faster than services business. Geographically, Asia-Pacific led the pack and the Americas returned to growth, though recovery lost pace in EMEA. Notably, profitability was hit by higher supply chain costs and an unfavourable product mix. Although the gross order intake was back in the black, it missed expectations with EMEA playing spoilsport. Gi

Cenkos: Healthcare Sector - Ward Round

Weekly round-up of AIM-listed healthcare news. Venture Life Group, GENinCode, Kromek, Alliance Pharma, Polarean Imaging, Benchmark Holdings, Ondine Biomedical, Verici Dx, Faron Pharmaceuticals, Avacta Group, Abingdon Health, Open Orphan, Belluscura, Hutchmed (China), Oxford Biodynamics

LIBERUM: Futura Medical* - Strategy on track, FM71 data in Sept

Shield Therapeutics - FY results: focus on funding and growing the US

Full-year results were in line with the preliminary guidance issued in early 2022. Feraccru revenues in Europe increased with a 60% increase in volumes and the US commercialisation of Accrufer continues, with broader insurance coverage (100m lives covered). As with many small cap companies, access to growth capital is currently difficult; however, the group has raised a $10m loan from a major shareholder providing a cash runway till end-2022. Our assumption is that further funding comes from deb

Cenkos: OptiBiotix Health Plc -- Final results

OptiBiotix has reported final results for the year to December 2021, with revenues growing 45% to £2.2m and the EBITDA loss increasing to £1.0m, reflecting the increased investment in the business. Post-period end, OptiBiotix has continued to return value to shareholders through the successful spin-out and listing of its ProBiotix Health division. Future growth of the company is supported by commercial agreements with large partners and a substantial pipeline of opportunities through its 2nd gen

SHORE CAPITAL - Warpaint London+ (W7L) - House Stock at 113p

Record H1 as distribution widens and offer resonates

Trading continues to track ahead of expectations, which have been upgraded twice so far YTD. There is clear evidence the growth strategy is bearing fruit. Distribution gains are increasing brand reach both in the UK and overseas. This appears to be an ideal time for its on-trend value-for-money proposition to gain traction, potentially with counter-cyclical characteristics as consumers start trading down. After the recent pull-back, valuation is undemanding for a 3-yr EPS CAGR of 13% with risk p

Morning Note – 30 June 2022

Next Gen XPLOR and D2C

Belluscura has announced the launch of the next generation X-PLOR portable oxygen concentrator and expanded distribution through a D2C offering and partnership distribution plan for smaller DMEs.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 30/06/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: Visum Technologies has joined the AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Compan

CMA conclusion; small bolt-on; and in line trading

An update from CVS this morning covering conclusion of the CMA process, a further acquisition and update on trading. The CMA investigation into the acquisition of Quality Pet Care (QPC) is now complete, thereby bringing to an end a 9 month process. As part of the undertaking, CVS yesterday completed the sale of QPC for cash proceeds of c.£9m, implying a c.£12m impairment. Whilst the CMA episode has clearly been a setback, it does not seem to have fundamentally impaired ongoing M&A ambitions give

SHORE CAPITAL - Oxford BioDynamics+ (OBD) - House Stock at 16p

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 20/06/2022

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: Tungsten Corp and Sensyne Health have both left AIM. Hibernia REIT has left the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fi

Positive AGM statement

The strong momentum from Q4-21 has continued into H1-22, with revenues expected to be up by more than 22% YoY. The outlook remains positive supported by strong industry demand and market share gains in the UK, where the group’s sustainability and affordability credentials are increasingly resonating. Whilst some macro pressures remain, these look to be manageable. We therefore make no change to our forecasts at this stage, but are highly encouraged by current trends and remain optimistic for the

LIBERUM: SourceBio International* - Scaling growth and trading well

Continued growth and margin improvement prompt further upgrades

A positive AGM update confirms strong revenue growth has continued YTD and further margin improvement means management again expect EBITDA to be materially ahead of expectations. The business model is now settled, with additional distributors appointed in the US which should help drive further penetration into the Primary Care market there. China revenues were strong and with no sign yet of any slowdown, despite being cognisant of renewed lockdowns there. Gross margins have remained robust on po