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23 Oct 2025
3Q25 first take: 5% EBIT miss on weak Wood Products
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3Q25 first take: 5% EBIT miss on weak Wood Products
Holmen Ab-B Shares (HOLMB:STO) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Muir-Sands Charlie CMS -
Pages:
10 -
What happened?
As a reminder we last heard from Holmen on 14 August at Q2. Today the company reports Q3 EBIT of SEK737m - a 5% miss vs. consensus'' SEK777m (and our SEK839m). This was driven by a miss in Wood Products (lumber) only partially offset by a beat in Board and Paper and Forest. The weakness in Wood Products is consistent with that seen at Stora Enso, also reporting this morning. The company cites pulpwood prices beginning to fall from very high levels but log prices unchanged. EPS beats, driven by a one-time favourable tax settlement. As per usual, Holmen provides no outlook in the statement, but may give some colour on the call. Given the results we think shares may underperform peers a little this morning.
Main points from Q3 results:
We set out a full variance table in Figure 1 below.
- Valuation: On our current forecasts Holmen (at SEK352/share) trades on 11.5x/ 11.5x EV/EBITDA, 16.4x/ 16.4x EV/EBIT, 20.5x/ 20.9x PE for FY Dec-25/26.
- Conference call: There will be a webcast/ conference call at 10:15 EET/ 9:15 CET/ 8:15am UK time here.
Figure 1: Holmen 3Q25 results variance
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source: Company data, InFront (consensus), BNP Paribas Exane