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23 Oct 2025
3Q25: Off the call
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3Q25: Off the call
Holmen Ab-B Shares (HOLMB:STO) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Muir-Sands Charlie CMS -
Pages:
10 -
Conference call: The focus of the call was on the outlook, with management sharing largely qualitative thoughts on some areas of price and cost evolution into Q4 and early 2026. Paper and Board pricing is relatively stable but negotiations are now under way for next year and Holmen understandably was unwilling to guide, albeit acknowledged the very weak supply-demand balance. Similarly, Wood Products demand weakness means pricing remains under pressure in the near term. Pulpwood pricing is coming down (headwind for Forest but net tailwind to Group) but log prices still are not, despite very weak profitability of the sawmill segment. Overall we expect consensus to trim estimates. We sit 8% below consensus EBIT for 2026, as elaborated on in our recent initiation: Solid but we wooden buy it - initiate at Underperform, 29 September.
Results: Today the company reported Q3 EBIT of SEK737m - a 5% miss vs. consensus'' SEK777m (and our SEK839m). This was driven by a miss in Wood Products (lumber) only partially offset by a beat in Board and Paper and Forest. The weakness in Wood Products is consistent with that seen at Stora Enso, also reporting this morning and includes a SEK30m inventory value impairment. The company cites pulpwood prices beginning to fall from very high levels but log prices unchanged. EPS beats, driven by a one-time favourable tax settlement.
Main points from the call
n.b. outlook comments already provided in the statement in detail (see 3Q25 first take: 5% EBIT miss on weak Wood Products). So below we just summarise incremental news from the call.
- Forest: still expect full year harvest from own forest to be flat yoy (i.e. pick up in Q4). Profit growth qoq was driven by pricing. Pulpwood prices are coming down though logs are not. Too early in management''s view to quantify declines. There is a 6 month lag for the impact on the group, so price declines still to come. Geographic mix effects in harvesting contributed to Q3.
- Wood...