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After a dismal Q2, there was some respite for Boliden in Q3. While the results were mixed compared with the market’s expectations (which triggered another sell-off), there were some positives – especially in top-line terms. Although it would be premature to expect that all the (operating) issues will soon be resolved, the ability to navigate volatile commodity markets was evident in the divisional dynamics (even when operations are far from optimal). Hence, the market’s nervousness remains a bu
Companies: Boliden Ab (BOL:STO)Boliden AB (BOL:OME)
On the back of extreme endogenous and exogenous headwinds, Boliden reported dismal Q2 results. Disappointingly, the weakness in Mining was worse than Smelting – where a massive fire accident crippled operations. The situation was further complicated by a difficult macro/operating environment. While the issues may not subside anytime soon, today’s colossal sell-off and the significant share price weakness in recent months has opened up an opportunity to bank on a firm that’s capable of gradually
Based on our recent discussion with Boliden’s IR, it is clear that the recent smelter incident has dealt a major blow to operations. A key limitation would be the inability to capture the value of free metals (primarily gold), which is expected to take a toll on profitability. The good part is that the impact of this event is well-insured. Also, drawing a parallel with Norsk Hydro (faced with a similar situation a few years ago), we remain confident of the Swedish firm’s rebound.
Companies: BOL SGZ GAL KAV ZNWD CUSN BOL CCZ
2023 began on a weak note for Boliden with the Q1 results missing the street’s expectations. Volumes were a key challenge, especially in Mining. While the stock fell >7% on the day of the results release, we believe that the current level offers an attractive entry opportunity, thanks to intact underlying virtues – including well-balanced Mining and Smelting exposure, FX benefits, valuable precious metal exposure, a strong balance sheet, abating cost headwinds and a unique European metals propos
2022 ended on a mixed note. A combination of volume challenges, moderating prices and higher costs restrained the Q4 results. While the 2022 results were at record levels – which also fuelled an impressive shareholder rewards package – and Smelting outperformed Mining – something which may continue in the near future – a normalising medium-term earnings trajectory seems inevitable. Moreover, with aggressive spending plans, rewards too should normalise. But given Boliden’s unique metals propositi
Despite healthy prices, Boliden’s Q2 results missed street expectations. Besides guided maintenance shutdowns, the impact of spiralling cost inflation was evident in both divisions. Moreover, given the ferocious commodity pricing correction underway since late Q2, further operating performance normalisation in the coming quarters seems inevitable. However, by virtue of its smelting exposure, precious metal diversity and valuable SEK-driven tailwinds, Boliden seems ‘relatively’ better positioned
On the back of war-induced pricing euphoria, Boliden reported exceptional Q1 22 results, with both divisions performing well. While prices helped dwarf cost concerns in Q1, this may not be the case in the coming quarters. Moreover, with serious growth concerns in the Swedish firm’s focus markets, the sustainability of the current results looks increasingly difficult. While Boliden is an apt and well-balance proxy for Europe’s long-term metal demand, it is also risky given the brewing challenges.
After a disappointing Q3, Boliden has reported impressive Q4 results and summed up to healthy 2021 results. Broad-based price gains (and Q4 FX tailwinds) overshadowed volume disruptions and (brewing) cost challenges. Management again announced attractive shareholder rewards. However, various cost risks and pricing vulnerabilities lie ahead. While Boliden by virtue of its business model remains well-positioned to withstand market volatility, for now, the downside risks are higher and, hence, we m
Australian Vanadium (AVL AU) – Subsidiary to build VRFB at Water corporation site
Boliden AB (BOL SS) – Nickel production halted at Harjavalta due to explosion
Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) – Update on hydrogen/ammonia strategy and new presentation
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) – Environmental approval for Malaysian disposal facility
Sandfire Resources (SFR AU) - Spanish government grants Sandfire Resources approval for MATSA acquisition
Companies: AVL SFR LYC BOL EUA BOL
AEX Gold (AEXG LN) – Q3 report indicates progress de-risking Nalunaq Project
Anglo American (AAL LN) – De Beers reports continuing positive sentiment in the diamond market
Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Mine River gold exploration extends footprint of the Tombreen target
Boliden AB (BOL SS) - Production halted at Tara Mine
Galantas Gold (GAL LN) – Gold intersections from underground drilling at the Omagh mine
Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Resumption of drilling at the Senala project, Senegal wi
Companies: AMRQ GAL BOL ORR SOLG AAL ARK BOL
Although Boliden reported soft Q3 results – largely due to guided maintenance shutdowns and some unexpected production issues – the firm remains in a strong position to leverage favourable market dynamics. Besides the near-term disruption in (European) zinc markets, the recovery in smelting charges is a good omen. Furthermore, the firm’s strong positioning in Europe – where demand fundamentals are ‘relatively’ more stable vs. the likes of China – makes the Swedish firm a good sector bet.
On the back of healthier prices, this time Boliden reported decent Q2 operating results. Although the performance fell below expectations. Mining continued to do well, but Smelting came under some pressure. While Boliden remains an attractive European bet, the near term is likely to be restrained by market volatility, planned maintenance shutdowns and growing inflation risk(s).
Continuation of price tailwinds supported Boliden’s Q1 results, despite production challenges in mining, TC worries in smelting and FX headwinds. Both divisions managed healthy results. While eventual commodity market normalisation and guided smelter maintenance should gradually result in capped/retreating margins, Boliden’s (cash) return generation capabilities should remain intact. Hence, the Swedish miner-smelter remains attractive, but with limited upside.
Despite the pandemic, Boliden posted healthy results. Interestingly, the performance resilience was led by both divisions – which typically exhibit contrasting fortunes. These intriguing dynamics translated into healthy cash flows and, hence, impressive shareholder rewards. While commodity markets seem expensive at present, the group’s ability to limit performance erosion in weaker markets and the added benefit of sizeable precious metal exposure are valuable virtues. Hence, our positive recomme
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Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi
Companies: Reabold Resources plc
88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed
Companies: BOIL POS TRIN 88E
Cameroon: Ready for the Rig
Companies: Tower Resources plc
On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit
Companies: Pan African Resources PLC
Companies: HHR CLBS SND
We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.
Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
Baron has been granted a further six-month extension to the Chuditch PSC. The end of Contract Year Two will now be 18 June 2024, at which time Baron will need to make a decision on entering Year Three. In the Third and final phase of the PSC, a final investment decision (FID) will be required on an appraisal well targeting the Chuditch discovery (Chuditch-2). Baron continues to make good progress in its discussions with potential funding partners, having previously announced that it is in “advan
Companies: Baron Oil Plc
Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr
Companies: Hartshead Resources NL
Companies: EVN AYM SOLG SAV CNR RBW ATM GSCU CGH
Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in
Companies: Southern Energy Corp.
Companies: PNRL AYM RIO THR WSBN GMET TGR
Companies: GAL RIO AAU POW BMN GEM EMPR
The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.
Companies: TLOU PTAL HTG ENW ITM BLVN RKH HBR UJO GMS JOG MATD CEG GENL AXL
Andrada Mining (“Andrada”; “ATM”) has produced its first laboratory scale high-grade spodumene concentrate from mineralised pegmatite at Lithium Ridge (ML133). The material was sourced from the drill core of three holes through two separate pegmatite ore bodies drilled earlier this year. The weighted average feed grade was 1.69% Li2O (15.2% Spodumene), with a 76% Li2O recovery, producing a 6.8% Li2O high-grade spodumene concentrate suitable for lithium carbonate production. A second drill progra
Companies: Andrada Mining Limited
Hannam & Partners