Mixed Q3, but not a disaster like the Q2

After a dismal Q2, there was some respite for Boliden in Q3. While the results were mixed compared with the market’s expectations (which triggered another sell-off), there were some positives – especially in top-line terms. Although it would be premature to expect that all the (operating) issues will soon be resolved, the ability to navigate volatile commodity markets was evident in the divisional dynamics (even when operations are far from optimal). Hence, the market’s nervousness remains a bu

A dismal Q2; the stock remains a compelling long-term bet but patience will be needed

On the back of extreme endogenous and exogenous headwinds, Boliden reported dismal Q2 results. Disappointingly, the weakness in Mining was worse than Smelting – where a massive fire accident crippled operations. The situation was further complicated by a difficult macro/operating environment. While the issues may not subside anytime soon, today’s colossal sell-off and the significant share price weakness in recent months has opened up an opportunity to bank on a firm that’s capable of gradually

The situation is bad, but not worrisome

Based on our recent discussion with Boliden’s IR, it is clear that the recent smelter incident has dealt a major blow to operations. A key limitation would be the inability to capture the value of free metals (primarily gold), which is expected to take a toll on profitability. The good part is that the impact of this event is well-insured. Also, drawing a parallel with Norsk Hydro (faced with a similar situation a few years ago), we remain confident of the Swedish firm’s rebound.

SP Angel Morning View: Global EV sales exceed 1m vehicles a month despite global growth concerns

Disappointing Q1, but an attractive European metals proxy

2023 began on a weak note for Boliden with the Q1 results missing the street’s expectations. Volumes were a key challenge, especially in Mining. While the stock fell >7% on the day of the results release, we believe that the current level offers an attractive entry opportunity, thanks to intact underlying virtues – including well-balanced Mining and Smelting exposure, FX benefits, valuable precious metal exposure, a strong balance sheet, abating cost headwinds and a unique European metals propos

Mixed Q4; further performance moderation seems inevitable

2022 ended on a mixed note. A combination of volume challenges, moderating prices and higher costs restrained the Q4 results. While the 2022 results were at record levels – which also fuelled an impressive shareholder rewards package – and Smelting outperformed Mining – something which may continue in the near future – a normalising medium-term earnings trajectory seems inevitable. Moreover, with aggressive spending plans, rewards too should normalise. But given Boliden’s unique metals propositi

Decent Q2, but restrained by maintenance shutdowns and cost headwinds

Despite healthy prices, Boliden’s Q2 results missed street expectations. Besides guided maintenance shutdowns, the impact of spiralling cost inflation was evident in both divisions. Moreover, given the ferocious commodity pricing correction underway since late Q2, further operating performance normalisation in the coming quarters seems inevitable. However, by virtue of its smelting exposure, precious metal diversity and valuable SEK-driven tailwinds, Boliden seems ‘relatively’ better positioned

Exceptional Q1 results; but various risks/uncertainties lie ahead

On the back of war-induced pricing euphoria, Boliden reported exceptional Q1 22 results, with both divisions performing well. While prices helped dwarf cost concerns in Q1, this may not be the case in the coming quarters. Moreover, with serious growth concerns in the Swedish firm’s focus markets, the sustainability of the current results looks increasingly difficult. While Boliden is an apt and well-balance proxy for Europe’s long-term metal demand, it is also risky given the brewing challenges.

Impressive results and rewards, but time to turn cautious

After a disappointing Q3, Boliden has reported impressive Q4 results and summed up to healthy 2021 results. Broad-based price gains (and Q4 FX tailwinds) overshadowed volume disruptions and (brewing) cost challenges. Management again announced attractive shareholder rewards. However, various cost risks and pricing vulnerabilities lie ahead. While Boliden by virtue of its business model remains well-positioned to withstand market volatility, for now, the downside risks are higher and, hence, we m

Disappointing Q3 but Buy case remains intact

Although Boliden reported soft Q3 results – largely due to guided maintenance shutdowns and some unexpected production issues – the firm remains in a strong position to leverage favourable market dynamics. Besides the near-term disruption in (European) zinc markets, the recovery in smelting charges is a good omen. Furthermore, the firm’s strong positioning in Europe – where demand fundamentals are ‘relatively’ more stable vs. the likes of China – makes the Swedish firm a good sector bet.

Decent Q2; though be prepared for a sombre H2

On the back of healthier prices, this time Boliden reported decent Q2 operating results. Although the performance fell below expectations. Mining continued to do well, but Smelting came under some pressure. While Boliden remains an attractive European bet, the near term is likely to be restrained by market volatility, planned maintenance shutdowns and growing inflation risk(s).

Strong Q1 results

Continuation of price tailwinds supported Boliden’s Q1 results, despite production challenges in mining, TC worries in smelting and FX headwinds. Both divisions managed healthy results. While eventual commodity market normalisation and guided smelter maintenance should gradually result in capped/retreating margins, Boliden’s (cash) return generation capabilities should remain intact. Hence, the Swedish miner-smelter remains attractive, but with limited upside.

Impressive results translated into dividend extravagance

Despite the pandemic, Boliden posted healthy results. Interestingly, the performance resilience was led by both divisions – which typically exhibit contrasting fortunes. These intriguing dynamics translated into healthy cash flows and, hence, impressive shareholder rewards. While commodity markets seem expensive at present, the group’s ability to limit performance erosion in weaker markets and the added benefit of sizeable precious metal exposure are valuable virtues. Hence, our positive recomme

Jersey Oil & Gas - Delivering zero-capex barrels

Last week, JOG successfully secured its second GBA farmout, locking in a path to delivering zero-capex barrels. The surprisingly muted share price response to the farm-out leaves JOG trading at an unjustifiably large discount to our valuation. With a material fully funded development project under its belt and a clean balance sheet, JOG presents a very low-cost way to access high quality development barrels for investors and potential acquirers alike. If the threat of M&A does not narrow JOG’s v

Plexus Holdings - FY23 final results – on the road to recovery

Plexus FY23 revenue and losses were in line with expectations. As well as the further development of its licensee relationship with SLB (Schlumberger), Plexus is focussed on its re-entry into the rental of exploration wellheads from Jack-up rigs, the sale of surface production wellheads and the provision of specialised solutions and applications to operators, particularly for Plug & Abandonment (P&A) work. Plexus won a substantial c£5m special project contract during the year, which was expanded

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): FY24 drilling programme: high impact & low risk

• 3Q23 production was 2,518 boe/d, near our forecast of 2,674 boe/d. • Arrow held US$12.9 mm in cash at the end of September. This is ahead of our expectations of US$6.6 mm on lower capex and opex. • Four new wells are expected to be on stream by YE23 including RCE 7, RCE-8 and two wells at Oso Pardo. • Following interpretation of the recently shot 3D seismic at Tapir, Arrow plans to drill a total of 15 wells in 2024 including five exploration wells targeting 3 material and low risk exploration

Morning Note – 29 November 2023

Morning Note – 28 November 2023

Alien Metals - Setting the foundations for operations at the Hancock DSO project

Alien and the Iron Ore Company of Australia (IOCA), continue to lay the foundations for operations at Hancock, one of its direct shipping iron ore (DSO) projects in Western Australia. Progress made to date ensures that, should a positive investment decision be made following the conclusion of Definitive Feasibility Studies (DFS), Hancock will be in operation and generating cashflow soon after capital is invested.

Longboat Energy plc (AIM: LBE): All eyes on 2024

• With the acquisition of interests in Sygna and Statfjord Øst expected to complete in January, the process to establish a stable well-funded producing business in Norway is almost complete. FY23 production at Sygna and Statfjord Øst net to Longboat Norge is ~250 boe/d. • The acquisition of 49.9% of Longboat Norge by JAPEX in 2023 provides low cost capital and access to a strong balance sheet to develop further the Kveikje area and make acquisitions at no further dilution to Longboat plc. • With

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: New $40m revolving facility: cheaper, more flexible, expandable to $60m

Morning Note – 1 December 2023

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator still says BUY: Equities lift too

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Clean Power Hydrogen - Revised agreement with ATOME

CPH2 and ATOME have reached a mutual agreement to cease the previous production order made by ATOME. The CPH2 Board of Directors considers it is in the Company’s best of interests to focus its engineering and installation resources in ensuring roll out Membrane Free Electrolysers with current partners Fabrum Solutions Limited, KCA Deutag and, Northern Ireland Water. As part of the agreement, Molecular Energies has requested, and CPH2 has agreed to, a non-binding framework agreement with G-Mobili

Strong second half trading

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.