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Once again, the market’s fears over the sustainability of the net interest margin have proven misplaced as confirmed by the quarterly surprise and the group’s updated guidance for 2024.
Companies: CaixaBank (CABK:BME)CaixaBank SA (CABK:MCE)
AlphaValue
The management has upgraded its 2023 expectations and is likely to do the same for 2024 in the first quarter of next year. This reflects a slower-than-expected deposit repricing which could be less accidental than officially stated, paving the way for a more resilient recovery in profitability.
The quarter enjoyed stronger net interest rate tailwinds and more resilient asset quality trends, thus enabling the management to upgrade its full-year guidance.
The fourth quarter results enjoyed a stronger-than-expected net interest margin recovery. The Euribor tailwind will remain very strong this year. However, this will be mitigated by weaker non-interest income, strong cost inflation, and an increased cost of risk.
Like its peers, the group has enjoyed the full benefit of interest rate hikes without having to share this with employees and depositors, or book provisions for an asset quality deterioration. The management believes that these ideal operating conditions will largely recur in 2023.
While the quarter showed strong fee income generation, the earnings beat was also attributable to non-sustainable factors, thus limiting the upgrade potential in our view.
Less supportive short-term outlook for protective films Following very strong volume growth last year, the protective film business faces a high comparison basis (from Q2 22 onwards) while its end markets (construction and interior) are not as supportive, reflecting more adverse economic conditions. Pricing is expected to remain a strong driver combatting the continued spike in polyethylene prices, which should ultimately limit margin expansion. Fashion catching up, Museum Solutions not yet at
Companies: Chargeurs SA (CRI:PAR)CaixaBank SA (0ILK:LON)
BNP Paribas Exane - Sponsored Research
Like many of its peers, CABK views the current environment as the best in the world, as if the only potential outcome of the escalating tensions between the West and the East was the end of negative interest rates. Not only the group’s view is already largely factored in the consensus expectations (and ours), but it could prove too optimistic in our view.
Q1 22 sales tracking ahead Q1 22 sales tracked 9% above our expectations at EUR204m, up 8.1% like-for-like. The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends in protective films (+22%) and fashion (+58%) while healthcare came short against a high comparison basis. The museum business (+25%) continued to benefit from the recovery in retail and events activities as well as the return of long-term projects. Pricing ramping up Prices were a major driver in Q1 22. In protective films, they
In our view, the underlying quarterly trends were in line with expectations thus enabling the management to reiterate its full-year guidance.
Slight adjustments to our FY22-23 outlook EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2022 : € 1.32 vs 1.36 -3.18% 2023 : € 1.48 vs 1.52 -2.36% We have incorporated the FY21 figures, with the group's net result outperforming our forecast by €0.24 per share. This was mostly explained by a higher operating performance for CPF and CHS, slightly offset by a lower than expected operating result for CFT-PCC. For FY22-23, the main changes to our forecast stem from a slight cut to our operating margin assumpti
Q4 21 sales sharply ahead of forecasts Chargeurs posted Q4 21 sales of EUR191m, up 43%, of which 41% was LFL. This came 20% above our EUR160m (+20%e LFL) estimate. The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends across the board except at the healthcare solutions division (against high comps). Revenues stood 19% above 2019 level on a LFL basis. FY 2021 EBIT in line reflecting input cost headwinds FY 21 EBIT came in at EUR51m, down 36% YOY (against Covid boosted earnings in 2020) and
The fourth quarter operating trends are in line with the group’s 10% RoTE objective set for 2022 (without any interest rates support). Ongoing strong fee income generation, merger-related cost savings and the benign cost of risk will help absorb net interest margin headwinds.
Stronger than expected Q3 21 sales trends Chargeurs posted Q3 21 sales of EUR173m up 2% of which 0.7% LFL. This came 13% above our forecast of EUR153m (-10% organic growth). The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends at CPF, CFT PCC and Luxury Materials. Strong CPF, CFT PCC gradually returning to normal CPF (+28% LFL) continued to see strong trends driven by demand in construction and price hikes. CFT PCC (+20% LFL) saw a strong momentum in the US where sales were above 2019 lev
The quarter exceeded expectations on lower loan impairments but slightly disappointed on the top-line front driven by low activity levels.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CaixaBank SA. We currently have 0 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
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Cavendish
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Shore Capital
Avation, a lessor of 34 commercial aircraft, provided a trading update on Friday for the year to date, reporting a significant expected increase in the value of its ATR 72 purchase rights, along with an improvement in lease revenues and cash collections. Following the announcement of a restructured aircraft purchasing plan with ATR earlier this month, the company has reported that the grant of new aircraft purchase rights and the extension of the existing rights is expected to increase the value
Companies: Avation PLC
WHIreland
AUM was up by £2.2bn or 6% over H1-24, reaching £39.6bn on 31 Mar 24 (30 Sep 23: £37.4bn). This was a top-third growth rate among a London-listed peer group. While sustainable investing flows around the world have been subdued, we are seeing some early signs of a return to stronger flows. H1-24 revenue of £86.2m was down 2% y-o-y from £88.0m in H1-23 on lower average AUM levels and an unchanged average fee margin of 45bps. However, an AUM recovery during the period saw run-rate revenue increase
Companies: Impax Asset Management Group plc
Equity Development
TRIG’s portfolio continues to evolve, despite equity capital markets being closed…
Companies: Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited GBP Red.Shs
Kepler | Trust Intelligence
Headline Q1 net profit of GEL1.04bn included negative goodwill of GEL686m arising from the Ameriabank acquisition. Adjusted profit of GEL369m was a touch light of our estimate, but on lower other income, while costs came in higher on increased investment spend. However, the Group net interest margin increased slightly on 4Q23, unchanged also on the prior year, and better than expected, against a backdrop of faster cuts in interest rates by the National Bank of Georgia this year. Economic growth
Companies: Bank of Georgia Group Plc
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Tern’s FY23 results highlight improving metrics that should attract additional strategic interest across the portfolio. All companies are gaining significant commercial traction, with configuration work turning to repeat licencing through SaaS models and growing high-profile customer bases. However, valuations across the global technology landscape remain depressed, which has flowed through to Device Authority and Wyld, as detailed overleaf. Therefore, despite the significant improvement in perf
Companies: Tern PLC
Progressive Equity Research
UK commercial property has been a cornerstone asset for many income-seeking investors (both retail and institutional) in recent decades, particularly since the global financial crisis of 2007/8 and the resulting ultra-low interest rate environment. However, since rates began to rise in 2022 to tackle surging inflation, meaningful returns have once more become available on lower-risk assets such as cash and government bonds, which has led to a retrenchment from alternative income assets such as p
Companies: LABS SREI SUPR AEWU
Capital Access Group
The Bankers Investment Trust (BNKR) focuses on cash-generating companies and FY23 (ended 31 October 2023) was its 57th consecutive year of dividend growth. Dividends rose by 10%, maintaining the trust’s track record of above inflation dividend growth over the long term. The board expects dividends to rise by at least 5% in FY24. While this is commendable, BNKR’s recent relative total return performance has been adversely affected by its lack of exposure to most of the so-called Magnificent Seven
Companies: Bankers Investment Trust PLC GBP
Edison
Canaccord Genuity
NBPE’s realisation activity shows its portfolio is ‘in demand’…
Companies: NB Private Equity Partners Limited Class A
In this note we look at the gap between perception and reality in the UK equity market, the opportunities and threats in the economic and market outlook, and the emerging consensus that the valuation discount versus other major markets is at or close to an inflection point. We consider the benefits of UK equity strategies both for income investors and for those seeking exposure to the higher growth potential of smaller and mid-cap companies.
Companies: ATS MRCH SCP SHRS LWDB JUGI MINI
For Q124, Regional REIT (RGL) has maintained the rate of quarterly DPS at 1.2p. We expect DPS for the year will partly depend on RGL’s chosen re-financing route. Meanwhile, RGL’s asset disposal programme continues to progress. Portfolio EPC ratings have continued to show good improvement and, adjusted for disposals, rent roll and occupancy were robust. We have made no changes to our forecasts.
Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.
AJB’s CEO, Michael Summersgill, said on the results call that some of the recent price changes were perhaps “unnecessary” and maybe “a little bit aggressive” at the time. That is because AJ Bell is a proper growth company, taking share in two big markets. We believe the nub of the investment story is that the market has a tough time estimating the growth acceleration that should come from such aggressive pricing. We now see the company close to fair value, but the market-share-taking trend may b
Companies: AJ Bell Plc
Hannam & Partners
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