The best of Swiss banking know-how combined with innovative products and organic growth? Sounds good, and with interest rates rising and a strong BS, the near term looks well supported. Longer term, continuing client acquisition, revenue per client and successful MandA will be key.
Growth with quality
Swissquote has delivered client asset and revenue growth in nine of ten years (through to 2021) with CAGRs of 22% and 14% respectively, through organic growth and MandA, outperforming most peers. How? Client interest in its Swiss banking pedigree, cross-selling of tradable asset products, innovative launches (e.g. crypto product), premium pricing, and its B2B white-label offerings.
Growing EPS in 2022 and beyond
We project an 8% revenue and 9% EPS CAGR (2021-2024e), driven by a) European expansion, supported by affluent clients trading more online; b) USD deposit overhang; and c) the expansion of B2B activities. While we forecast trading activity to somewhat normalize in 2022/2023, rising short-term US interest rates provide upside to depressed net interest income: We calculate a 25bps U.S. rate hike would result in 3% higher pre-tax profit.
A strong balance sheet means enviable choices
Given strong retained earnings generation and its low-risk balance sheet, we expect excess capital to increase. This will allow Swissquote to further raise dividend payments, enlarge its treasury portfolio in a rising US rate environment and accelerate growth via bolt-on MandA.
Valuation range CHF180-220
We value the shares using a PE multiple on our 2023 estimates, which results in a range of CHF180-220. Larger upside risks are: 1) Rising Bitcoin prices supporting investment activity and client acquisition; 2) Rising interest rates in Switzerland and the Eurozone; 3) additional accretive bolt-on MandA; and 4) if the new outlook (due March 2022) is bullish. Moreover, we see room for a longer term re-rating if the relationship between client assets and net...

03 Feb 2022
It''s in the American interest


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It''s in the American interest
Swissquote Group Holding Ltd. (SQN:SWX) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
03 Feb 2022 -
Author:
Blieffert Christoph CB -
Pages:
44 -
The best of Swiss banking know-how combined with innovative products and organic growth? Sounds good, and with interest rates rising and a strong BS, the near term looks well supported. Longer term, continuing client acquisition, revenue per client and successful MandA will be key.
Growth with quality
Swissquote has delivered client asset and revenue growth in nine of ten years (through to 2021) with CAGRs of 22% and 14% respectively, through organic growth and MandA, outperforming most peers. How? Client interest in its Swiss banking pedigree, cross-selling of tradable asset products, innovative launches (e.g. crypto product), premium pricing, and its B2B white-label offerings.
Growing EPS in 2022 and beyond
We project an 8% revenue and 9% EPS CAGR (2021-2024e), driven by a) European expansion, supported by affluent clients trading more online; b) USD deposit overhang; and c) the expansion of B2B activities. While we forecast trading activity to somewhat normalize in 2022/2023, rising short-term US interest rates provide upside to depressed net interest income: We calculate a 25bps U.S. rate hike would result in 3% higher pre-tax profit.
A strong balance sheet means enviable choices
Given strong retained earnings generation and its low-risk balance sheet, we expect excess capital to increase. This will allow Swissquote to further raise dividend payments, enlarge its treasury portfolio in a rising US rate environment and accelerate growth via bolt-on MandA.
Valuation range CHF180-220
We value the shares using a PE multiple on our 2023 estimates, which results in a range of CHF180-220. Larger upside risks are: 1) Rising Bitcoin prices supporting investment activity and client acquisition; 2) Rising interest rates in Switzerland and the Eurozone; 3) additional accretive bolt-on MandA; and 4) if the new outlook (due March 2022) is bullish. Moreover, we see room for a longer term re-rating if the relationship between client assets and net...