Organic sales growth came in above market expectations (+6.1% organically vs. 5.8% consensus), especially thanks to a strong performance in Europe which was a good surprise. Broadly, commercial pressure persisted but the chocolate market worldwide slightly recovered (especially in terms of premium products), showing positive momentum. At the group level, the difficult environment in several markets (such as HK and Latin America) has been offset by strong European results and improvements in North America.
Companies: CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT-REG
FY update: As a reminder, sales grew organically 3.7% (volume +2.9%, price/mix 0.8%) and 4.8% on reported figures (FX: +1.1%).
The reported EBIT was up +5.8% with the EBIT margin up 20bp to 14.6% (in line with our estimates). By division, the EBIT margin improved in Europe +100bp and in ROW by a strong +210bp. In NAFTA, the EBIT margin contracted by 170bp on the back of a weaker US market & Russell Stover. Net profit is up +7.8%.
FY18 guidance: given the challenging US market conditions, the group expects organic sales of c. 5% and an improvement in the EBIT margin in line with mid- to long-term guidance. Mid- to long-term guidance is maintained: 6-8% top-line growth with a 20-40bp EBIT margin expansion.
The company will launch a share buy-back programme for registered shares and participation certificates to the amount of CHF500m. It is expected to start on 12 March 2018 and last until 30 July 2019.
FY trading update: Sales grew organically by 3.7% (H2: 3.8%, below our forecast) and +4.8% reported (FX: 1.1%). Excluding Russell Stover, sales grew organically by 5.9%.
FY OG by region: Europe +6.2%, NAFTA -1.6% (better H2:+0.1% but the market is still weak) and ROW +12.4% (driven by Japan and Brazil). Global Retail recorded double-digit growth and is now generating CHF 0.5bn in sales.
The group expects the FY17 operating margin to be up in the 20-40 bps range. The mid-term to long-term guidance is 6-8% top line growth and 20-40bps margin expansion is maintained.
H1 update: sales are up +3.6% organically (+6.6% excluding Russell Stover) with volumes +2% and +1.6% on price/mix. On reported figures, sales grew +3.1%. The operating margin is up +20bp.
OG by region: Europe 6%, NAFTA -3% (due to the realignment of the Russell Stover portfolio) and ROW +14%. Global Retail expanded by 20 new shops in H1. Net profit is up +5.7%.
The company expects a stronger second half with an increase in the operating profit margin on a FY basis. The FY17 top-line growth, however, is expected be slightly lower than last year’s (+6%). The Russell Stover realignment will take more time than originally anticipated.
FY update: as a reminder sales grew organically 6% (volume +3.9%, price/mix 2.1%).
The reported EBIT was up +8.4% with the EBIT margin up 20bp to 14.4% (broadly in line with our estimates). By division, the EBIT margin improved in Europe +100bp and in ROW +190bp but was weaker for NAFTA -120bp on the back of RS portfolio adjustments, production-line investments and promotional activity (however, these works were necessary for long-term profitable growth in future).
L&S opened 60 new chocolate shops and cafés (more than the 20-30 target), mainly in Europe, Canada, Brazil and Japan, pushing its Retail network to 370 outlets. The Global Retail division increased sales by 12.7%.
Net income was up 10.2%. Dividend was up 10%.
FY17 guidance: organic sales broadly in line with the past year and a further improvement in the EBIT margin. Mid- to long-term guidance is maintained: 6-8% top-line growth with a 20-40bp EBIT margin expansion.
Sales grew organically by 6% (H2: 7.6%, in line with our forecast and slightly better than consensus of 5.7%) and 6.8% on reported figures (in line with consensus, FX: 0.8%). Excluding Russell Stover, sales grew organically 7.4%.
FY OG by region: Europe +7.4%, NAFTA +3.4% and ROW +10.2% (driven by Japan and Brazil). Global Retail recorded double- digit growth.
L&S released its H1 update. Organic sales stood at 4.4% (cons. 5.3%) and were up +6.6% on reported figures. Weaker than expected OG is linked to adjustments to the Russell Stover portfolio (SKU reduction that does not fit into the strategy, coupled with price increases and decreasing promotional activity). Excluding Russell Stover, organic sales were up 6.6%. OG by region: 5.7%, NAFTA +0.8% (+6.6% excluding the effect of Russell Stover) and ROW +10.2%.
L&S has released its FY accounts. As a reminder, at the time of the trading statement, the group reported 7.1% organic sales growth (4.8% in H2). On a FY basis, operating profit stood at CHF518.8m (slightly above consensus and our estimates). The operating margin rose 20bp (10bp better than expected). Net profit increased by 11.2%, and the proposed dividend is up 10.3% to CHF800.
For FY16, the group confirms its mid- to long-term guidance: 6-8% organic growth and an increase in EBIT of 20-40bp.
FY trading update. Organic sales growth stood at 7.1% (only 4.8% OG in H2). On the reported figures, sales progressed by 7.9% (negative FX effect stood at 5.6%, in local currencies sales progressed by 13.5%) to CHF 3.65bn. By region, Europe OG was at 5.6%, NAFTA achieved 7.9% OG, whereas ROW OG stood at 11.4%. The group expects the FY operating profit margin to be at least the same level as last year.
More details with the full financial statement on 8 March.
L&S released its H1 results. As a reminder at its H1 trading update, the company reported 9.4% OG (6.4% in volume and 3% in price/mix) excluding Russell Stover's results. Total sales (including Russell Stover) increased by 17.4% to CHF1,409m with a -7.5% FX effect. Russell Stover's integration added 15.5% to the results.
The group grew organically in all regions: Europe 6.9%, NAFTA 10.3% (excl. Russell Stover) and ROW 18.9%. On reported figures, Europe's sales declined by 4.9%, NAFTA's was up by 69.2% (and by 14.9% excluding Russell Stover) whereas ROW delivered 13.3%.
EBIT stood at CHF90.6m (in line with our estimates). The EBIT margin was flat yoy with Europe +120bp, NAFTA +20bp and ROW down by 30bp. The group's net income reached CHF65m (+16.5% yoy).
L&S confirmed its FY outlook: 6-8% sales OG and 20-40bp EBIT margin expansion once the Russell Stover integration is accomplished.
H1 trading update: the company reported 9.4% OG excluding Russell Stover's results. Total sales (including Russell Stover) increased by 17.4% to CHF1,409m (-7.5% FX effect).
The company confirmed its mid long-term outlook: 6-8% sales OG and 20-40bp EBIT margin expansion once the Russell Stover integration is accomplished.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT-REG.
We currently have 11 research reports from 1
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Continuing its exceptionally strong year, Venture Life has announced it expects to ‘comfortably exceed market expectations' for FY20E. This outperformance stems from all areas of the business, supported by an enlarged order book, €168m multi-year Chinese agreement (+€7m in 2020) and demand for its new branded hand sanitising gel. Venture Life has announced an extension to its Alliance Pharma manufacturing agreement. On top of our March upgrade, we are today, significantly increasing our revenue and EBITDA forecasts for FY20E (+19% and +24%, respectively). We reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Companies: Venture Life Group
Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX DNL GDR NSF PCA PIN PHNX PHP RE/ RECI STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
Whilst Finsbury is experiencing strong demand from the retail channel, the food service channel (c20% of FY19A revenues) has been significantly impacted by the government's decision to close food outlets in order to control the spread of COVID-19. Finsbury is only in the early stages of assessing the impact of the virus on their business, and as such, is unable to provide earnings guidance. We withdraw our forecasts and place our rating Under Review, until visibility improves.
Companies: Finsbury Food Group
Distil delivered a solid trading performance in FY20, despite uncertainties caused by the impact of external events in the form of Brexit initially and COVID-19 more recently. With its disciplined cost approach, Distil saw a 15% increase in operating profit from a 2% rise in revenue. Range extensions have underpinned the continuing success of its leading RedLeg Spiced Rum brand and Distil has continued to lay the groundwork for the further development and future expansion of its brand portfolio.
RESTORE (RST) | FEVERTREE DRINKS (FEVR) | WYG (WYG) | BREEDON (BREE) | HOTEL CHOCOLAT (HOTC) | CONVIVIALITY (CVR) | JAMES HALSTEAD (JHD)
Companies: RST FEVR WYG BREE HOTC CVR JHD
Premier Foods’ H119 results demonstrate the business has become more resilient under the stewardship of outgoing CEO, Gavin Darby. Revenue growth of 1.0% in Q2 despite the hot summer was encouraging, and the UK relaunch of the Mr Kipling brand has clearly gone well. The news that Ambrosia may be sold suggests yet another step in the business transformation, although the price will determine the level of dilution and any change to net debt/EBITDA.
Companies: Premier Foods
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI
Finsbury has announced a positive H1/20A, boosted by strong LFL revenue growth (+5.2% YoY) in UK Bakery, and the maintenance of group Adj EBITDA margins (at c8.5%) in the face of challenging market conditions. Finsbury's cash generative business profile (c11% FY20E FCF yield) is enabling the company to steadily deleverage, whilst also supporting a growing dividend (3.6% FY20E yield).
Venture Life Group has announced the signing of a new, exclusive 15-year agreement with its Chinese partner on key products, including Dentyl. Significantly, the minimum purchase obligations over the 15-year period amount to €168m. This equates to, on average, £10m of revenues and potentially £4m of EBITDA, per year, to 2034, which we estimate has a present value of ~£21m or 25p per share. Further, we believe the agreement significantly improves the Group's long-term financial position. The deal clearly validates Venture Life's Chinese strategy and its partner's commitment to the long-term development of these key products. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Following the equity fund-raising via a new share placing on 22 April 2020, Science in Sport has announced a new debt financing facility. The equity placing raised gross proceeds of £4.5m, and the group has now secured a new £8m invoice financing facility from HSBC for an initial one-year term. This latest undrawn facility provides further headroom to the company’s liquidity position during the COVID-19-related uncertainty and gives it the financial flexibility to continue with its strategy of pursuing strong sales growth.
Companies: Science In Sport
Premier Foods’ FY20 results demonstrate the substantial progress the company has made over the past few years. The UK business has now grown for 11 consecutive quarters and Q121 is set to be very strong. In the UK the brands grew ahead of their categories and the innovation rate has hit a new high. A new landmark pensions agreement was signed in April, which could potentially significantly reduce the future funding requirements for Premier Foods. The recent triennial actuarial valuation delivers further credence to the pensions deal.