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FY20 top and bottom line missed expectations and Diageo didn’t provide guidance for next year. Improvements expected in the coming months thanks to lockdown restrictions easing, though the margin should still be under pressure for the next six months.
Companies: Diageo Plc
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
A clear step in the right direction with a significant beat in Q2 and a strong month by month recovery. ABI has been the worst-performing beverage stock in Europe this year, with a valuation which now looks cheap. Still strong upside.
Companies: AB INBEV
Danone did less well than its peers (especially Nestle), and a little less well than consensus expected, but not so badly either. However, the lack of improvement in the expected margin remains the main issue for the rest of the year. Overall, sentiment is mixed.
Companies: Danone
Q2 figures reflected strong foodservices impact, but with encouraging recovery at the end of the quarter. No major change expected in our opinion/target price.
Companies: Kerry Group
The Scottish government, an administration which has no powers to raise duty but has powers to manage the region's NHS on an independent basis has implemented Minimum Unit Pricing for alcoholic drinks. Unusually high per capita consumption of alcohol in Scotland was responsible initially for the move towards minimum pricing. Importantly, a minimum price is being set for alcohol in its own right rather than for an alcoholic drinks category.
Premier Foods’ H119 results demonstrate the business has become more resilient under the stewardship of outgoing CEO, Gavin Darby. Revenue growth of 1.0% in Q2 despite the hot summer was encouraging, and the UK relaunch of the Mr Kipling brand has clearly gone well. The news that Ambrosia may be sold suggests yet another step in the business transformation, although the price will determine the level of dilution and any change to net debt/EBITDA.
Companies: Premier Foods Plc
Key financials: Net sales were up +5.8% to £6.9bn on a reported basis, +7.5% organically, pushed by all regions. Organic volume grew by 3.5% Reported operating profit reached £2.4bn (+11%), organic operating profit grew by 12.3% Pre-exceptional EPS was 77.0p (+13.6%), while basic EPS was 80.9p, down by 1.6% due to the recent disposals FCF at £1.3bn (+£317m yoy) Interim dividend up by +5% to 26.1p per share Following this strong set of results, the company has approved an incremental share buy-back of £660m, bringing the total programme up to £3.0bn for the year. The group has also confirmed its guidance and continues to expect to deliver mid single-digit organic sales growth and to expand its operating margin by 175bp for the three years ending 30 June 2019.
The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L
Cake Box’s preliminary FY2020 results, released today, reconfirmed strong sales growth in FY2020 with scope for an expanded distribution footprint to deliver further sales revenue expansion in FY2021. While the Covid19 lockdown clearly disrupted franchisees’ in-store sales, Cake Box appears well placed to spring back both quickly and with a positive growth trajectory.
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc
Premier Foods’ FY20 results demonstrate the substantial progress the company has made over the past few years. The UK business has now grown for 11 consecutive quarters and Q121 is set to be very strong. In the UK the brands grew ahead of their categories and the innovation rate has hit a new high. A new landmark pensions agreement was signed in April, which could potentially significantly reduce the future funding requirements for Premier Foods. The recent triennial actuarial valuation delivers further credence to the pensions deal.
Cranswick’s FY20 results demonstrate its strength and agility and current trading confirms the company is well positioned despite the uncertainty posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit. Revenues were up 13.0% on a like-for-like basis, mainly driven by better price/mix, but with underlying volumes up 3.4%. Adjusted PBT was up 11.2% on the prior year and EPS up 8.4%. Net debt was £146.9m at year end, including IFRS 16 liabilities of £65.9m. The start to FY21 has been positive and hence the outlook remains unchanged.
Companies: Cranswick
Sustainable sales momentum and FY20 guidance in line with the consensus. During this H1, Nestle demonstrated that its « own » operations (PetCare, Coffee) are more resilient than those of Danone.
Companies: Nestle
