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07 Nov 2024
Drawing a line under US liability
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Drawing a line under US liability
What happened?
- Swiss Re has announced that it is strengthening its US liability reserves by $2.4bn in Q3 2024
- This will result in the company making a group net income of $0.1bn for Q3 2024
- The strengthening was partly offset by releases in other lines. Net reserve strengthening in Q3 was $2.0bn
- The group now sees its overall reserves across its PandC businesses to be positioned at the higher end of the best estimate range. There is also the introduction of the uncertainty allowance to include in the reserve picture. As such, there does not appear to be any reason for further reserve strengthening going forward.
- Management state that they have addressed ''reserve developments in our entire US liability portfolio, including all prior underwriting years''
- Following these reserving actions, the company expects that the group is positioned at the 90th percentile on its best estimate range across the entirety of the PandC reserves.
BNPP Exane View:
Outside of reserve strengthening, the Q3 performance appears very strong. The company net income for Q3 was $0.1bn, despite the $2.4bn headwind and the major nat cat events seen in the quarter. The company has also guided that it expects $3bn of net income for the full year. Again, this is down from the $3.6bn original net income target, but still a very good result considering the headwinds from reserve strengthening.
Looking forward there will continue to be a) some uncertainty whether this truly draws a line under the US Liability issue and 2) some drag from adding further prudence to new business. On these items, it does seem the best attempt the company has made to fully draw a line under US Liability discussions and the company has also significantly increased prudence across the entire book. On the latter, the $500 - 200m walk from FY24 - FY27 from adding additional prudence on new business should reduce. We expect an update on this at the company Investor Day in December. Given these two...