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14 Aug 2025
Q2 2025 results: A low-quality beat
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Q2 2025 results: A low-quality beat
What happened?
Swiss Re has reported its Q2 2025 results. The net income of $1,330m is a solid beat to consensus, with the PandC businesses driving the way. The PandC combined ratio was a large beat, albeit driven by very favourable nat cat and man-made losses and better discounting offsetting a worse attritional loss ratio. The renewals also saw a significant volume decline, with renewal volumes falling 5.9% as the company continues to reduce its casualty book aggressively. Given the reaction to revenue disappoints this results season, we would expect the shares to underperform today.
BNPP Exane View:
Strong Q2 combined ratio, but worse attritional: Swiss Re delivered a combined ratio in Q2 well ahead of consensus. The Q2 combined ratio was 76.3%. However, the attritional was substantially worse than expectations. The company has had a positive nat cat outcome ($14m release) in Q2, man-made were $73m, the quarterly discount rate was 11% and the company has flagged positive PYD. Note that there has been a $256m benefit from changes in the risk adjustment. This points to a more challenging attritional development.
Renewals: The renewals in June and July saw volume fall 5.9%. This was due to a very large decrease in the casualty book at renewal, which fell by -26.6% at renewal season. The net price change of -2.4% is better than we had assumed (BNPPE: -2.9%). Net renewals saw a 3% increase in volume across the year.
Insurance revenue: Insurance revenue has been the focus of this results season. Group insurance revenue misses expectations by 1%. PandC Re missed by 6%, CorSo beat expectations nicely and Life was close to in line. The revenue yoy was impacted by the change in the accounting for NDICs (as has peers), however, the decline is still material despite the FX tailwinds.
CorSo: CorSo showed continued strong development. The combined ratio beat estimates by 2ppts with insurance revenue also ahead of expectations.
Life and Health: Life and...