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                    14 Aug 2025 
Q2 25 conference call: Solid fundamentals, but some noise to come
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Q2 25 conference call: Solid fundamentals, but some noise to come
What happened? 
Swiss Re''s Q2 conference call focused on: 1) the outlook for insurance revenue and life experience variances in the short-term; and 2) Swiss Re''s ability to grow its PandC book over the longer term especially in light of the cycle dynamics. The insurance revenue guidance for H2 was more positive, albeit consensus still appears stretched. Further Life assumption updates look set to create some volatility in the coming quarters. The growth outlook is clearly uncertain, although Casualty headwinds should now (finally) fade. Overall, it was a mixed conference call with items to be keep both sides of the debates interested, in our view. 
BNPP Exane View:
Insurance revenue guidance for H2 a positive, but consensus still a stretch: Insurance revenue misses / downgrades have been a theme with this set of reporting. Swiss Re was impacted by the same challenge. The company had attributed part of the miss to heightened seasonality, with the change in reserving philosophy the main driver in the change yoy (after normalising for the accounting change and disposals). The company guided to a $1.5bn increase in PandC Revenues in H2 vs H1. This would put the FY 2025 insurance revenues at $19.3bn. Consensus currently sits at $19.5bn.   
Life and Health Re - Some noise to come: There was some negative experience variance in the Life segment in H1. This was attributed to assumption updates largely on ''smaller portfolios''. The company completed a large reserve and assumption review in LandH Re last year. However, it anticipates some noise as the complete the assumption updates on some smaller portfolios that are developing worse than expectation. In time, management expect that experience variance will trend to zero, however, there may be some noise in the near term before we get there.  
US Casualty - Finally done: Management stated that Swiss Re had gone from 17% share of the US Casualty market at peak down to 5% currently. There was a suggestion that the...