This content is only available within our institutional offering.
13 Dec 2024
Swiss Re CMD first take - Solid update sets the stall for the next phase of Swiss Re
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Swiss Re CMD first take - Solid update sets the stall for the next phase of Swiss Re
What happened?
Swiss Re has released its FY 2025 targets ahead of its ''Management dialogues'' presentation later today. Overall, the targets look in line in or slightly ahead of consensus expectations. We would view this as a positive, especially given the likely conservatism embedded in the targets and the break-down of the profitability target metrics. The conservatism in the PandC Re combined ratio combined ratio guidance stands-out, in this regard. The company has not provided guidance on any headwind from buffer build / timing differences on the release profile, although the guidance of neutral experience variance suggests that the company is anticipating some continued headwind in 2025. We summarise the targets vs our expectations below.
Source: Company Data, BNPPE estimates, Visible Alpha, Bloomberg
BNPP Exane View:
Overall, this is a strong guidance for net profit, in our view. The net income guidance of EUR4.4bn is ahead of our expectation. We assume that there is a high degree of confidence in this number, given Swiss Re''s desire to be viewed as more conservative and cautious on guidance.
We think this view is supported by the PandC Re combined ratio guidance. We think this looks highly conservative vs the underlying level of profitability that we estimate of 2024E, which is closer to 82%. There does appear to be a material assumption of headwinds from reserving timing differences. This supports the potential for further increases in guidance for 2026 and beyond.
The one negative is in the Life and Health Re guidance. The company is expected to take a ~5% hit to its CSM following the completion of its reserving review. This is unwelcome and results in a Life and Health Re profit guidance behind consensus. We would not read too much to the CSM adjustment or be materially concerned of further adverse effects. The commentary is that Life claims trends, especially in Swiss Re''s largest business segments are satisfactory.
Finally, the DPS...