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17 Jul 2025
Swiss Re Q2 pre-close: Benign cat and steady renewals
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Swiss Re Q2 pre-close: Benign cat and steady renewals
What happened?
We had a conversation with Swiss Re ahead of its Q2 results which will be reported on 14 August. We note there was no change to guidance. We summarise the key takeaways below.
BNPP Exane View:
. Renewals: Swiss Re reminded us that risk-adjusted pricing was down 1.5% at 1.1 and 2.3% at 1.4. The company highlighted that broker reports suggested that pricing trends were similar at 1.6/1.7. However, the mix of business at 1.6 / 1.7 looks more like 1.4 than 1.1. There are more loss affected accounts renewing at 1.6/1.7, which should help. However, similar trends to recent renewals is a reasonable assumption.
. New Business CSM: Note, that the new business CSM will only include the 1.6 renewal. 1.6 renewal is c6% of new business, with the 1.7 renewal accounting for 14% of new business.
. Catastrophe losses: The recent Aon and Gallagher reports suggest that Q2 has been active in terms of large losses. However, the industry losses have been high frequency, relatively low severity events, predominantly in the US. As such, we expect the catastrophe load in Q2 will be relatively benign.
. Man-made: There have been more man-made events, mainly in the Aviation and Marine lines of business. Q1 was also active. As a reminder the average quarterly man-made losses have been c$75m in PandC Re and CorSo.
. FX: FX has moved materially in the quarter. As a $ reporter, the company will enjoy a revenue tailwind from USD depreciation. The company has CHF costs, due to holding and head office costs. The company expects the currency result impact to be relatively low.
. FWD: There will be no material PandL impact associated with the IPO of FWD. This is accounted for through OCI, as such, there will be no PandL impact. Swiss Re currently owns c5% of FWD.