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    SUVRETTA HAUS ST MORITZ

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    SUVRETTA HAUS ST MORITZ

  • 23 Jul 19

Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019

In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.

Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 13 Aug 19

Continued outperformance vs. the market

Marshall Motors has delivered a strong set of H1 results for 2019E in the context of a challenging trading environment. The group’s H1 results reflect a strong unit sales performance, outperforming the new retail, new fleet and used car markets, together with further growth in aftersales revenues. We update our forecast to reflect the impact of IFRS 16, albeit some of this is absorbed by the strong underlying trading patterns and the performance delivered to date, with our assumptions also at the lower end of the consensus range. We remain happy with the long term investment case, aided by a robust balance sheet and solid track record of execution and outperforming the wider market.

Companies: Marshall Motor
  • 01 Aug 19

THE MONTHLY August 2019

The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VAL VTA W7L

  • 11 Jul 19

Diversification and scale for online success

The global online gaming market generated c £40bn of gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 2018 and newly regulating markets (the US) are expected to contribute to 7% CAGR to 2023 (according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC)). However, while regulated markets have provided significant opportunities for operators to date, government intervention remains a constant threat and legislation is tightening. Some mature markets (notably the UK) have been raising taxes and implementing regulatory burdens, which increases the cost of business. In our view, success will depend on a combination of scale, diversification, proprietary technology and a strong balance sheet. Many of the 12 operators in this report should benefit from these dynamics and sector valuations remain attractive, at 12.6x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 6.0% dividend yield for FY19.

Companies: 888 ACX BETSB ORPH GVC JPJ OPAP PTEC RNK WMH

  • 25 Jul 19

Decent Q2, UK regulatory pain less than expected

GVC reported strong Q2 19 numbers, with total NGR growing by 3%, on a cc basis. The performance was driven by solid online momentum (17% cc with gaming up 16% and sports up 20%). UK retail reported a 19% drop (hurt by the £2 stake cap limit), while European retail grew by 13%. Management continues to expect double-digit growth in online NGR and EBITDA and operating profit to come in line with expectations.

Companies: GVC
  • 13 Aug 19

Marshall Motor Holdings - Robust performance as challenges persist

In contrast to some of its immediate peers, Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) continues to deliver robust performances in even more challenging UK car markets. Increased revenues and gross profit, with gross margins maintained at 11.4%, limited the fall in H119 PBT to just £0.8m or 5% compared to H118, allowing for the restatement for adoption of IFRS 16. We maintain our underlying PBT estimates for FY19, which are reduced by the non-cash impact from the implementation to IFRS 16 by around 3.6%. We feel recent price weakness was due to company-specific issues at peers. While MMH may be facing a plateau in profitability as UK car markets await clearer economic signals, we feel the yield is supportive while investors await any improvement in fundamentals for the automotive retail sector overall.

Companies: Marshall Motor
  • 14 Aug 19

H1 results

H1 results from Lookers are largely as anticipated, albeit we note the interim dividend has been maintained and H1 net debt 15% down vs. the year end position. Additional costs relating to regulatory issues have been flagged, and we make minor adjustments to our 2020E and 2021E forecasts with 2019E maintained. With property assets amounting to 80p per share, and a dividend yield of 9.3%, we continue to believe deep value exists over the medium term.

Companies: Lookers
  • 05 Jul 19

Half time report

In this note and following the SMMT June data released yesterday, we look at the key dynamics of the sector during H1 2019 and how this is likely to impact the rest of the calendar year. The dealers have challenges on several different fronts, which could lead to some earnings pressure. However, we do believe valuations have reached a trough point, balance sheets remain strong, and FCF should start to steadily build as the capex cycle for most dealers has come to an end.

Companies: CAMB LOOK MMH VTU PDG

  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 12 Jul 19

Tougher trading in Q2

Lookers have released a trading statement this morning essentially confirming that trading has deteriorated during Q2, which is consistent with our current sector thesis. As a result, we are downgrading our forecasts to reflect this. While Lookers no doubt has issues to deal with, we do believe there is significant value at current levels trading on 6.0x downgraded 2019E EPS, a dividend yield of 8.8% with cover still at 1.9x based on our revised EPS, property assets at 78p per share and net tangible assets at 45p per share, demonstrating the deep value we believe exists.

Companies: Lookers
  • 31 Jul 19

FY19 Results – solid progress

DWF Group has announced results for the year ended 30th April 2019, its maiden results since its IPO on 15th March. All four divisions delivered growth with International (+79%) and Connected Services (+23%), leading the charge. DWF have argued that they benefit significantly from a diversified business model which connected to the recent hires, strategic acquisitions and associations continues to grow despite significant uncertainty. As economic and political uncertainty has grown, contract disputes, insurance claims and fraud have increased giving the group a degree of counter-cyclical protection. At last night’s close the shares trade on an FY20 P/E of 11.1x falling to 8.5x, a notable discount to the wider UK legal services peer group average of 20.1x. In addition, it offers the highest yield of its peers, with a prospective FY20 yield of 6.3%. We remain confident in the medium-term growth strategy, and believe management is on track to achieve its objectives.

Companies: DWF Group
  • 01 Aug 19

Cenkos: Rotala Plc - Strengthened Balance Sheet

Following the recently announced acquisition of a bus depot in Bolton from First Manchester, Rotala has raised net proceeds of £1.1m at 56p in a share placing to repay debt and strengthen its balance sheet. Buy.

Companies: Rotala
  • 05 Aug 19

Benefiting from the well-balanced combined airlines

IAG published a strong set of Q2 figures, outperforming its industry peers (AF-KLM and Lufthansa) and consensus expectations. The better-than-expected profitability during the quarter was mainly driven by a good performance from BA and strong leisure demand at Vueling. The well-balanced mix of airlines (Legacy, short-haul low-cost, long-haul low-cost) has continued to drive higher-than-industry average yields and cost efficiencies.

Companies: International Consolidated Airlns Grp
  • 09 Nov 17

AIM Journal


Companies: RWS G4M SRC PIM GAN ARTA