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    SUVRETTA HAUS ST MORITZ

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    SUVRETTA HAUS ST MORITZ

  • 04 Nov 19

THE MONTHLY November 2019

The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L

  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 07 Nov 19

Trading update: flat YoY

Purplebricks’ trading update for the 6 months to 31 October 2019 reveals: “At a Group level, pro forma revenue is expected to be broadly flat relative to the same period last year ... and the Group enjoyed profitable trading in the First Half.”

Companies: Purplebricks Group
  • 06 Nov 19

Positive lfl sales growth in Food

The group has announced a slightly better than expected H1 19/20 figures, mainly thanks to the improved efficiency and better sales volume in the Food division.

Companies: Marks And Spencer Group
  • 07 Nov 19

Div cut signalled but strategic pivot

Halfords (HFD) has reported 1H PBT of £25.9m against consensus of £22.8m (1H 2018/19 £30.5m) – all numbers pre IFRS 16. It has also maintained current year profit guidance, indicated investment related reduction to consensus for FY 21 and announced that it will cut the full year dividend and re-base FY 21 dividend to 12p.

Companies: Halfords Group
  • 16 Jul 19

Results ahead of expectations, positive outlook


Companies: Fulham Shore
  • 11 Nov 19

Revising 2020E and 2021E

We update our forecasts following Inchcape’s Q3 IMS on 7th November, and focus our attention on 2020E and 2021E estimates after the Group confirmed it was well placed to hit 2019E last week. In 2020E and 2021E we expect a more challenging market in Asia, and currency headwinds in regions such as Australia to persist and adjust our forecast accordingly. We now expect adj. PBT in 2020E of £270.0m (vs £307.1m previously) and £268.5m in 2021E (vs £320.9m previously), which triggers a c12% EPS downgrade in each year. We remain comfortable with our long-term thesis set out in December 2018 and continue to see Inchcape as a unique investment opportunity. The business continues to invest in the higher margin distribution business, and growth of this segment should act as a key factor in the re-rating in our view.

Companies: Inchcape
  • 20 Dec 18

Sosandar - Give a girl the right pair of shoes...

Sosandar, the celebrity-endorsed women’s fashion brand, benefits from a simple and scalable capital-light online model, a fast-growing affluent customer base and a robust pipeline of new styles introduced each month. The company is achieving impressive growth across all key performance metrics and has a solid balance sheet to support its rapid expansion in the UK and, we believe, internationally over the medium term.

Companies: Sosandar
  • 01 Oct 19

STATE OF CHARGE - INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN EV CHARGING

Government bans on new fossil fueled vehicles in many major economies are likely to drive significant growth in electric vehicles (“EVs”) over the next twenty years. This will create growth in electricity demand from EV charging. The volume of energy to be supplied creates opportunities for both supply companies and generators and the provision of charge points is already creating a new industry. However, the timing of this demand puts pressure on local distribution infrastructure. While smart charging and vehicle to grid technology offer solutions, we believe these will only be partial given likely charging behaviour and as a result there will be demand for additional grid capacity and for other solutions. These other solutions include charger located storage and distributed generation.

Companies: CNA NG/ YU/ DRX GOOD RED SMS IKA AFC

  • 06 Nov 19

Clothing and Online Problems Persist, Food Benefits from Gross Margin Investment

On numbers M&S has reported a weak 1H with Underlying PBT of £177m (HY 2018/19 £213m re-stated) down 17% as the company suffered weak sales in Clothing & Home (LFL – 5.5%) and invested revenue in repositioning both sides of its offer. We would expect that the updated guidance and the 1H performance are likely to result in full year 2019/20 market consensus estimates staying at around £450-470m pre-exceptional items, implying less of a reduction in 2H.

Companies: Marks And Spencer Group
  • 13 Nov 19

Robust margin forecast supported by a better-diversified portfolio

The bolt-on acquisition of Air Europa is expected to strengthen the group’s overall performance by reason of more synergy effects. However, the downward outlook frustrates the market.

Companies: International Consolidated Airlns Grp
  • 26 Oct 18

Q318 IMS

The Pendragon share price has demonstrated resilience in the context of the wider liquidity squeeze in UK small and mid cap stocks that has recently driven a rotation in sentiment from growth to value. Whilst the group cannot be immune to wider industry pressures highlighted in the Q318 IMS, we believe the clear strategy to build its used car business and software platform will provide for a return to growth in FY19. This will be funded through strategic disposals and lower capital commitments to the new car market. This includes the potential sale of the group’s US Motor Group which would contribute to a planned £200m swing from a net debt position to a cash rich group over coming years. Whilst our Neutral stance acknowledges the negative sector sentiment that is unlikely to unwind short term, we remain alert to buying opportunities into any weakness.

Companies: Pendragon
  • 14 Jan 19

Opportunity knocks

We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.

Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI

  • 05 Jul 19

Half time report

In this note and following the SMMT June data released yesterday, we look at the key dynamics of the sector during H1 2019 and how this is likely to impact the rest of the calendar year. The dealers have challenges on several different fronts, which could lead to some earnings pressure. However, we do believe valuations have reached a trough point, balance sheets remain strong, and FCF should start to steadily build as the capex cycle for most dealers has come to an end.

Companies: CAMB LOOK MMH VTU PDG

  • 06 Aug 19

Acquisition of Karen Millen & Coast brands

Boohoo Group has announced the completion of the purchase of Karen Millen and Coast brands and related intellectual property, extending its offer into a new demographic and price point and cementing the Group’s status as a highly scalable, multi-branded fashion platform with the potential to be a leader in the e-commerce market globally.

Companies: Boohoo.Com