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    SUVRETTA HAUS ST MORITZ

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    SUVRETTA HAUS ST MORITZ

  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 16 May 19

Hopeless

The group’s activities (especially Tour Operator) have continued to be impacted by the tougher pricing environment resulting from the stiffer market competition and the uncertain consumer environment during the first half of the year. And these trends will continue for the rest of the year. Therefore, management has guided that the underlying operating profit in H2 will be lower than in the same period last year, which implies that the FY underlying operating profit will be at least 35% lower than current consensus expectations.

Companies: Thomas Cook Group
  • 21 May 19

LIBERUM: The AA* - We believe innovation will gradually be rewarded in the financials

The AA innovation day focused on the products and services that The AA will launch over the next 18 months. The ambition is to provide a valuable ecosystem that can be used by AA members and non-members.

Companies: AA
  • 21 May 19

LIBERUM: Topps Tiles* - H1 in line, upside risk could emerge

Topps Tiles’ H1 is in line with adjusted PBT of £8.0m, representing growth of 11.1% year-on-year. Current trading continues to show a positive trend, with LFL sales growth of 1.2%, although it was likely closer to 2.0%, removing the impact of a later Easter.

Companies: Topps Tiles
  • 17 May 19

Reassuring trading performance

easyJet published an encouraging set of H1 19 results, in line with consensus expectations. As expected, the lower air fares resulting from fierce industry competition and a higher cost environment deepened the operating loss in the first half. However, despite the continuing challenging trading environment and macro-economic uncertainties in Europe, the FY19 guidance remains unchanged.

Companies: easyJet
  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 16 May 19

LIBERUM: Safestyle* - Sales recovering to plan, margins taking longer

Safestyle's AGM trading update brings the welcome news that recovery is being achieved in revenues and profitability, with revenue growth of 17% expected this year and gross margins up 450bp in H1. However, expectations were higher than this and so we bring our 2019E PBT forecast down from £4.5m to £0.7m.

Companies: Safestyle UK
  • 20 May 19

LIBERUM: City Pub Group* - Momentum continues, Aragon House opens next week

City Pub sales growth momentum continues with sales up 35% YTD (19 weeks to 12 May 2019). The Hoste, Burnham Market, (acquired in April for c.£9m) is up and running, and the long-awaited development of Aragon House, Parsons Green, is due to fully open to the public next week.

Companies: City Pub Group
  • 20 Dec 18

Sosandar - Give a girl the right pair of shoes...

Sosandar, the celebrity-endorsed women’s fashion brand, benefits from a simple and scalable capital-light online model, a fast-growing affluent customer base and a robust pipeline of new styles introduced each month. The company is achieving impressive growth across all key performance metrics and has a solid balance sheet to support its rapid expansion in the UK and, we believe, internationally over the medium term.

Companies: Sosandar
  • 10 May 19

Relatively good trading performance

Compared to its European legacy competitors, IAG released a positive first quarterly operating profit despite the challenging industry conditions (higher fuel price, negative FX impact and lower fares resulting from the higher capacity growth in the industry).

Companies: International Consolidated Airlns Grp
  • 16 Apr 19

Q1 2019 AIM Review

2019 started well for investors with U.S. stocks rallying on the back of trade talks between China and the U.S. resuming. Sterling rebounded in Q1 2019 as expectations built the UK would avoid a “no deal” Brexit, providing a further tailwind to more internationally focused UK companies. This sentiment spread across the globe and filtered its way down into small caps.

Companies: PRSM KMK SYS RAI MNO CCS MANO CBOX KGH

  • 03 May 19

The Monthly May 2019

How small- and mid-cap quoted companies make a substantial contribution to markets, employment and tax revenues.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB ARBB CMH CLIG DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR OXB PCA PHP RE/ STX SIXH TRX TON VTA W7L

  • 10 May 19

LIBERUM: Air Partner* - Flat FY profits but encouraging progress in the US and Freight

Flat PBT was in line with management's guidance and our forecasts. Encouraging progress in the US and Freight represented sustained momentum in areas that were the focus of recruitment in previous years.

Companies: Air Partner
  • 13 May 19

Cenkos: Angling Direct Plc - Exceptional Growth

FY19A has been a transformational year for Angling Direct as they continue to grow their business both in the UK and abroad. This set of strong numbers solidifies their position as the retailer of choice for anglers. We believe the Group has a sustainable competitive advantage through the loyalty of its niche customer base and is now able to improve margins through cost led initiatives and its increased pricing power. Buy

Companies: Angling Direct
  • 16 May 19

Completion of Cocosa disposal. Trading conditions remain challenging

Following the RNS 2 weeks ago, MySale has today confirmed the disposal to Brandalley UK of its UK business Cocosa has completed (for £1.5m). The review of its SE Asia operations, which generated c11% of group revenue in FY18 (and incurred a loss) is ongoing. This is in line with the group's strategy to rationalise its non-ANZ divisions and focus on its sizeable core ANZ markets where there is significant growth potential. However, the update indicates current trading remains challenging and that the focus is on reducing the cost base, where it continues to make progress. Once these changes are completed, the more streamlined and focused approach will allow MySale to provide an improved offering for its customers and brand partners with the aim of rebuilding profitability. For now though, and pending clarity around the various changes to the group and their financial effects, we are temporarily withdrawing forecasts.

Companies: Mysale Group