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TUI delivered a consensus-beating top-line but a higher-than-expected underlying EBIT loss in the year-end quarter. The market nonetheless reacted positively thanks to the buoyant up-to-date booking trends despite the inflationary concerns. We may need to cut our estimates as the recovery seems less rapid than had been expected.
Companies: TUI AG
AlphaValue
Despite the consensus-breaking FY22 results and encouraging FY23 outlook, TUI’s mid-term ambitions look prudent compared to the market expectations. The share reaction was further negatively impacted by the dilution effect from the €1.6-1.8bn rights issue plan, which was set to support the exposure reduction to the German state rescue measures. We expect a decrease in the consensus and our target price.
TUI has reached agreement with the German WSF to fully repay the pandemic-related stabilization measures with a €479m nominal value of c.€730m and the price could increase to as much as €957m, subject to market conditions. A rights issue of €1.6-1.8bn (c.50-60% of TUI’s current market cap) is planned for early 2023 to support the WSF repayment, following the implementation of a capital reduction. The recap will also be used to partially redeem the remaining KfW credit lines of €2.1bn.
Despite a promising summer outlook, TUI’s trading update did not convince the market due to a high level of uncertainties related to airport chaos, geopolitics and inflation, etc. The financial guidance remains vague for the same reason and its balance sheet still needs meaningful strengthening. We expect a downgrade in the FY22 consensus but no major changes to our current estimates.
The market cheered TUI’s consensus-beating H1 results, improving the net debt position and accompanied by upbeat FY guidance. The favourable market conditions and the group’s strong pricing power should support sparkling summer trading and allow for a further strengthening of the balance sheet, although the only-limited fuel hedging could neutralize part of this expected vitality.
TUI’s Q1 results missed the consensus again while its liquidity and net debt positions remained comfortable. The current trading of summer bookings is mixed as the average prices remain buoyant but the booking volumes have slowed. Regardless, the target of summer bookings volume is maintained, due to later booking profiles and rising consumer confidence. The group’s plan to repay part of the state aid and to reach 90% of its permanent cost reduction by FY22 should be considered as positive.
TUI’s FY21 results came in below consensus and no meaningful short-term catalysts were seen. The group may have to trim further its winter schedule due to the new Omicron variant, which has already weighed on recent bookings. The summer 2022 bookings seem encouraging but visibility remains limited in effect.
TUI launched a €1.1bn share placing to reduce financial interest expenses and improve its debt profile. The recapitalisation is necessary, which should not surprise the market, and will supportively strengthen TUI’s vulnerable balance sheet. Due to a larger-than-expected dilution effect, we will have a lower target price after integrating this capital increase.
TUI’s Q3 results update was encouraging, due to a meaningful business restoration, improved cash generation and promising summer outlook, despite a narrowed Q4 capacity schedule. However, a plan of the critical balance sheet repairment is still missing.
TUI’s H1 results release frustrated the market today, due to its downward-adjusted FY revenue guidance and mediocre cash burn rate, despite the prospect of a bright summer recovery. Consensus might go down.
TUI delivered a weak Q1 as expected, with an unexpectedly improved cash burn rate, but the latter should be considered as a one-off item since no improvement has been included in the guidance. The group’s current liquidity position should be adequate at least until the summer, while its heavy leverage is a concern instead. It continues betting on a summer recovery, whereas we still consider the near-term market conditions as highly uncertain.
TUI’s FY20 results disappointed the market, with a further trimmed business assumption for FY21. It doesn’t expect a return to profitable growth until FY22.
The additional financing package would allow TUI to last until next summer, when a constructive business resumption is expected to be seen.
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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TUI AG. We currently have 1 research reports from 7 professional analysts.
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