Roche reported healthy Q3 sales numbers (8% CER growth), with the robust performance in Diagnostics being complemented by a strong contribution from COVID-19 treatment initiatives, and recovering core pharma offerings. Although, the pandemic and biosimilars-induced headwinds could still have some near-term impact, the group is possibly hurt the worst on both fronts. Further valuable cushion comes from Roche’s innovation supremacy – evident in the post-pandemic testing times and which is here to
Companies: Roche Holding Ltd
Q2 sales growth was healthy, with a strong performance in Diagnostics being complemented by some recovery in Pharmaceuticals. However, sustained headwinds (pandemic + biosimilars) in the lynchpin oncology franchise (and partly in other areas as well) has resulted in a ‘surprise’ margin deterioration. Moreover, resurfacing COVID-19 risks are expected to keep the Swiss giant on the hook. While near-term Pharmaceutical normalcy seems difficult, one should find confidence from growing Diagnostics do
Recently, there has been a turnaround in Roche’s fortunes, with its share price outperforming peers. While, fundamentally, Roche had always been a solid business, the revival in sentiment can be attributed to moderating COVID-19 risk(s) in the US – a key end market. This could be an inflection point for heavily US reliant innovative pharmas. Whereas, for Roche, its positioning as a sector bellwether is now likely to be better appreciated.
2021 began on an encouraging note, with Diagnostics again lending support to the lynchpin Pharmas division – continued to be impacted by biosimilar erosion and/or pandemic disruption. While the group’s near-term outlook still remains jittery – amid the current backdrop of resurfacing COVID-19 risks, growing Diagnostics dominance – backed by near-term tailwinds and long-term potential of innovative offerings in Pharmas – lend ample support to our investment case.
Roche has provided a re-assuring update for its Diagnostics division. Besides leveraging the COVID-19 testing opportunity, the group is well-positioned to capitalise the pandemic-driven emphasis on testing and investment in healthcare infrastructure. These are soothing developments, especially at a time when the core Pharma division may take some quarters before witnessing a complete recovery/normalisation. Moreover, with the group recently resorting to inorganic growth in diagnostics, we believ
Roche ended 2020 on a disappointing note, with biosimilar erosion and pandemic disruption taking their toll on the lynchpin Pharmaceuticals division. Although some meaningful support, as expected, surfaced from Diagnostics – a major pandemic beneficiary.
While the near term remains uncertain, there’s apt balance-sheet strength to pass this phase with minimal negative implications for growth plans and shareholder rewards. And, on top, with the innovations under-development, Roche remains amongst
Recently, there has been pertinent share price performance divergence between Novartis and Roche. While, for a long time, Novartis had the upper hand, it seems that Roche’s (rare) underperformance offers a window of opportunity. Remember, despite the recent concerns, some of which are/have also moderating/moderated, Roche still remains the undisputed leader on a host of performance parameters.
After a disappointing Q2 (-4% CER sales growth), Roche had some respite in Q3 (+1%) – though below expectations, largely driven by diagnostics due to the strong demand for COVID-19 tests. While the older oncology drugs continued facing pressure, newer drugs did better.
Management maintained its 2020 guidance and committed to higher dividends. While the on-going pharma transition may cap near-term sales, an adequate cushion should emanate via diagnostics. Moreover, investments in newer (high-pot
The second quarter performance pressure in Pharmaceutical was far more severe for Roche vs. Novartis. However, other than the impact of the Q1 forward-buying reversal, Roche was also impacted by the accelerated decline of the older and off-patent oncology trio. Fortunately, Diagnostics render a valued cushion, thanks to the group’s COVID-19 test offering. While Roche’s top-line is somewhat vulnerable to biosimilar risks, despite an impressive pipeline, its profitability prowess and hidden potent
With CHF13bn ($14bn) annual sales, Roche is a dominant force in the global diagnostics market. Interestingly, in recent years, most diagnostics majors have witnessed material re-ratings – also a function of increased M&A euphoria. Now, in the backdrop of COVID-19, Roche has also emerged as a prominent player on the testing front. With big pharmas moving away from (low-growth) non-pharma offerings, is it time for Roche to consider unlocking value from Diagnostics?
Pharmaceuticals and well-complemented by Diagnostics. Interestingly, although Roche’s management claims minimal COVID-related Q1 disruption, there were delayed appointments for some chronic diseases and a drug shortage. While it is difficult to believe that the performance in the coming quarters will continue unscathed, Roche – by virtue of its competitive offerings and balance sheet strength – should be able to sail through with minimal damage.
Roche ended 2019 on a subtle note, with erosion of key off-patent drugs capping gains from new high-potential drugs like Ocrevus, Hemlibra and Tecentriq. Nevertheless, full-year sales growth was 9% CER vs. early-2019 guidance of low-to-mid single-digit growth. While the group’s pipeline – especially in oncology, remains impressive, relatively muted 2020 guidance (vs. Novartis) is an indication of the biosimilar impact eventually gathering momentum.
Roche’s Q3 19 sales growth of 13% CER is the highest quarterly growth in the last eight years. In oncology, the newer drugs have clearly taken over the growth baton from the older ones, further supported by multiple sclerosis, haemophilia and immunology drugs. Despite the looming biosimilar risk, a third consecutive guidance upgrade this year is a reflection of the group’s sustained innovation and efficient lifecycle management.
The cancer burden is growing globally. Each year >18 million people are diagnosed, nearly 10 million die and the estimated economic cost exceeds $1 trillion. From early diagnosis to late-stage disease, cancer care often involves inappropriate or unnecessary interventions that drive costs but provide limited clinical benefit. Coupled with an increased understanding of cancer biology and rapid technological advances, this has been driving momentum for precision medicine, leading to patient and soc
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Roche continued its strong momentum and upgraded 2019 guidance for the second time. While the Q2 sales growth of 9% at CER was largely driven by Pharmaceuticals (+11%), Diagnostics’ (+4%) reflected a recovery from the one-off setbacks of Q1. The new drugs continued to hold up well, more than compensating for the erosion of the legacy drugs. As the company moves deeper into the biosimilar battle, it is this balance, which would be critical.
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Yourgene has experienced strong demand for its Covid-19 tests, which propelled H1’22 revenues to £17.5m, ahead of the >£15.0m indicated at the AGM last month. This is more than double the revenues booked in H1’21 and close to the whole of FY21. Both Genomic Services and Genomic Technologies grew strongly in the period, with Covid-related revenues now acting as much more than a natural hedge in both segments. Despite the ongoing uncertainties and lack of forward visibility around Covid-testing vo
Companies: Yourgene Health Plc
Softline, the global solutions and services provider in digital transformation and cybersecurity, with its headquarters in London, has issued GDRs to the Standard Listing Segment of the Official List, and on the Moscow Exchange. The Group had a turnover of US$1.8bn for the year ended 31 March 2021, employs c.6,000 people globally, and operates in more than 50 countries across emerging markets. Primary proceeds from the Offer are expected to be around US$400m. At the $7.5 offer price. Mkt
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Recruitment resumed the Phase 2a trial of the lead programme hRPC in retinitis pigmentosa (RP) with the treatment of the first UK-patient in Oxford. The protocol gives greater infection control after the safety issue (a possible infection) in June. Five patients were treated up to mid-October and the remaining four could be treated by December 2021. By late March 2022, ReNeuron expects to give an interim update. The full data set should be available around mid-2022. This will enable regulatory d
Companies: ReNeuron Group plc
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Devolver Digital to join AIM, an award-winning digital video games publisher and developer in the indie games space. Recently awarded indie 'Publisher of the Year 2021' by GamesIndustry.biz. Offer TBA. Due early Nov.
Life Science REIT to join AIM raising up to £100m. This will be the first London listed real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on UK life science properties providing investors with exposure
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SkinBioTherapeutics has made significant progress through 2021, and ahead of the launch of its first product, AxisBiotix-Ps on World Psoriasis Day, we provide an overview of the company, its commercial channels and its progress. With the imminent launch of AxisBiotix-Ps, the company is at a significant inflection point, transitioning from a development organisation to a commercial operation. Importantly SkinBioTherapeutics has four further commercial channels in progress behind this lead opportu
Companies: SkinBioTherapeutics Plc
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ATOM headquartered in Leeds, focussed on the large-scale production of green hydrogen and ammonia intends to join AIM towards the end of the year. ATOME intends to be spun-out from AIM-listed President Energy Plc, an oil and gas company which has incubated and financially supported ATOME to date, by way of a dividend in specie and flotation.
Devolver Digital to join AIM, an award-winning digital video games pu
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IXICO has announced that one of its clients has put an indefinite halt on a clinical trial for which the company was providing its artificial intelligence medical image analysis. The halt is the result of unexpected preclinical data. IXICO had expected the contract to deliver £0.8m of revenues in FY22E and it represented £3.3m of the £18.8m order book as of the close September 2021. While this news is disappointing, clearly the trial halt has no reflection on the capability of IXICO's technology
Companies: IXICO Plc
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Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL ; TSXV: AXL) , the oil and gas exploration and production company, has conditionally raised approximately £8.8m and is due to complete its dual listing on AIM on 25 Oct. Market cap c£13.1m.
Devolver Digital to join AIM, an award-winning digital video games publisher and developer in the indie games space. Recently awarded indie 'Publisher of the Year 2021' by GamesIndustry.biz.
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H1 EBITDA declined by 45% YoY, albeit this was slightly better than we had anticipated after the pre-close update in August. The beat was cost related (efficiencies/savings). There was a significant gross margin drag though and, while transitory in nature and diminishing in H2, this means further savings need to be realised to hit full year forecasts. This is our view and we retain a good level of confidence in next year’s forecasts. Having de-rated, valuation looks very undemanding now on just
Companies: Venture Life Group Plc
Venture Life has announced its interim results for the six months to June 2021. As previously announced in the August trading statement, revenues were down YoY due to lower HSG sales and sales to the Chinese partner, though revenues are expected to grow subsequently, benefiting from the two recent acquisitions. H1/21 gross margin was impacted by a number of factors including supply chain costs and stockholding costs; however, the company expect margins to improve in H2/21E. Despite the set-backs
CareTech is a specialist social care and educational services provider. This morning, the group has announced an update for the year to 30 September pointing to the fact that results will be in line with market expectations. The net debt position of £259m illustrates a further reduction since the end of H1 (31 March £263.1m) and implying a reduction to 2.7x adjusted EBITDA. During the year, seven new developments have opened, with a further eight properties purchased in H2. The group's freehold
Companies: CareTech Holdings PLC
Positive headline results announcement, showing a statistically significant and clinically meaningful difference between Grass MATA MPL and placebo in hayfever patients in the exploratory field study (G309), is considered a major de-risking event. Not only does it increase the probability of successfully completing the pivotal Phase III study (G306) in the US and EU, but it underpins the broader MATA MPL platform, which includes tree and ragweed pollen, and increases the likelihood of completing
Companies: Allergy Therapeutics plc
NetScientific plc (NSCI) an active transatlantic life sciences/healthcare, sustainability and technology investment and commercialisation group announces that its corporate finance and venture capital division EMV Capital Ltd (EMVC) has advised on a £843k fundraise, into Sofant Technologies, the leading 5G and Satcom antenna developer based in Edinburgh. The fundraise consists of £300k direct investment from NetScientific, £343k from private clients and £200k matched funding from the British Bus
Companies: NetScientific plc
Q3 sales up 13%
Q3 sales were up 13% (+15% organic) to EUR37.2m of which Medical up 5% to EUR19.3m and Photonics up 27% to EUR18m. For Photonics, we note that Industrial and Scientific was up c50%, Defence and Spatial remained well oriented at +3.8% (with a stable contribution from the megajoule contract) while LIDAR was up a robust 22% in the quarter as production issues are abating.
Lumibird is comfortable with the consensus estimates for FY sales at EUR160m. It implies
Companies: Lumibird SA
Hikma’s H1 20 top-line acceleration was driven by COVID-19-related demand in Injectables and Generics and the economic recovery in Algeria propelled growth in the Branded segment. Combined with a favourable product-mix, the operating margin was up 1.5ppt. In the near term, new launches across segments should provide some respite against the ongoing pricing pressure. Given the company’s thin R&D pipeline and a robust balance sheet, M&A (probably in the biosimilars space) seems on the cards.
Companies: Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc