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The Q3 numbers were globally in line with our expectations. The main issue with Swisscom is that its dividend is likely to remain unchanged at CHF22 for a few more years as the Swiss EBITDA less capex should be stable in the coming years. We are at reduce with 5% upside. Swisscom offers the lowest dividend yield of the sector at 4% and, while the Swiss 10y is at only 1.05%, the US 10y is still at… 4.7%.
Companies: Swisscom AG
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The Q1 numbers were globally in line with expectations and with the outlook for 2023. While the EBITDA could grow at 2% per year from 2023 with stabilising revenue, in parallel capex will remain stable and at a high level. We continue to expect no dividend increase before…2025. The dividend yield is now only 3.55%: we remain at reduce on the stock with some small downside.
A promising quarter with 1.5% revenue growth in Switzerland in Q4. But time is still needed before the group decides to increase its dividend (flat for 12 years). Swisscom already proposes payment of an unchanged dividend of CHF22 per share for…2023 (to be paid in 2024). But, since the beginning of November, the stock has recovered by 20% and offers again a 4% dividend yield. Well isn’t it better to buy the US bond at 5%?
Nothing special to say regarding the operational numbers: Swisscom is currently a no-growth story in terms of EBITDA. Despite the decision to employ P2P connections for its ftth network, Swisscom’s capex will also remain stable in the coming years. And the will thus dividend remain unchanged. Swisscom’s share price has declined by 20% since August, leaving the current dividend yield at a more attractive 4.85%. We are again at Add on the stock.
No real surprises in the Q1 figures. The Swisscom stock price has proved very resilient to the war in Ukraine, remaining stable in March before rising in line with the sector to reach a high in mid-April of CHF575. At these levels the dividend yield is 3.8% and, given the current climate of rising long-term interest rates, we see the stock as fully priced and maintain our opinion at Reduce.
No surprise with the Q4 figures but the outlook for 2022 is no more exciting than last year’s. Swisscom is currently clearly a no-growth story in terms of EBITDA less capex. So we therefore believe that the dividend is not about to increase before… 2025. We maintain our opinion at Add but we clearly prefer to invest today in telcos with a higher yield and which moreover should increase their dividends in the coming years, like KPN, Tele2 or Orange.
Swisscom released its Q3 yesterday morning. The release and the new outlook for 2021 were disappointing and the stock dropped by 7.4%. The stock, which had recovered to its pre-COVID-19 prices (CHF550) is just over CHF500 this morning. Two days ago, we were at Reduce at CHF550, while the group offered a best in class dividend yield of 4%. Now the stock is back to the CHF500 level we pass by again with an Add with a target price at… CHF549.
A good Q1: the revenue decline in the Swiss core business stopped this quarter and Swisscom no longer expects Swiss revenue to decline in 2021. Swisscom will pay an unchanged dividend of CHF22 in 2021-22, corresponding to a 4.6% yield which offers little potential if the telecom sector ends up regaining its pre-COVID-19 returns.
Revenues and EBITDA were perfectly in line with expectations in Q4. As for 2021, in Switzerland, it will not be possible to make up fully for the decline in revenue through cost savings like in 2020. Fastweb will, however, remain the growth engine and Swisscom should be a perfect no-growth story. Swisscom will pay an unchanged dividend of CHF22 in 2021-22, corresponding to a 4.5% yield which offers only little potential if the telecom sector ends up regaining its pre-COVID-19 returns.
EBITDA was up by 2.5% despite an expected 2.2% revenue decline, reflecting the clear effects of a continued restructuring in Switzerland. A positive quarter for a defensive stock. Note that the dividend will be maintain for 2020 at CHF22, taking this same dividend run to nine years. The stock is trading 15% below its end-2019 levels and we are at Add with 15% upside.
The COVID-19 pandemic will have had little impact on the H1 results and Swisscom will maintain its dividend at the current level for the next year. However, the event of August remains the takeover of Sunrise by Liberty Global which owns the cable operator UPC Switzerland. These developments have led us to remain cautious on the stock which seems at its price (we have a 6% potential upside).
Revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations in 2019. Swisscom will propose payment of an unchanged dividend of CHF 22 per share for 2020. Note that it will be nine years now (since 2011) that Swisscom offers the same annual dividend. And it should be maintained at this level for 2020 as capex and EBITDA are expected to be stable or to decrease by 1% yoy. The group seems at its price and we are at reduce on the stock.
Still no surprise for the… Swiss bond with its Q3 numbers. Swisscom is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in the sector at 4.45%. So it allows limited potential upside for the stock. We maitain our opinion at Add with a 5% upside.
The second mobile operator in Switzerland, Sunrise, was said to have been in discussions with Liberty Global regarding a possible acquisition of UPC Switzerland since the beginning of February. Sunrise yesterday announced its agreement to buy Liberty Global’s Swiss cable operator in a CHF6.3bn deal to create a bigger challenger to Switzerland’s dominant telco Swisscom. Sunrise will pay Liberty Global CHF2.6bn in cash, and assume CHF3.6bn of UPC’s debt. It corresponds to 8X the current EBITDA.
No surprise for the… Swiss bond with its Q4 numbers. Swisscom is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in the sector (with the Finnish Elisa) at 4.75%. So it allows a limited potential upside for the stock given that a 4.5% dividend yield seems to be the minimum required today in the sector. We maitain our opinion at Add with a 9% upside.
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