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    SCHIFFFAHRTSGES DES VIERWALD

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    SCHIFFFAHRTSGES DES VIERWALD

  • 22 Jan 20
Slower Q4 trading, confident of FY21 improvement

Today’s update highlights slower than expected trading within Air Partner’s Charter division in Q4, resulting in a shortfall against previous profit expectations. Visibility is always fairly limited and activity in the UK was impacted by the December General Election and resultant uncertainty, which now looks to have cleared. Adjusted PBT is expected to be £4.3m in FY20 (year ending 31st Jan), compared to our previous forecast of £5.5m and a prior year outturn of £5.8m. The outlook for FY21 is brighter, with sizeable business wins in the Charter division for delivery in H1’21 and good order coverage for the Safety & Security division. Safety & Security also stands to benefit from the first full year of the Redline acquisition. As a result, the Board remains confident in FY21 prospects, suggesting Q4 represents only a short term setback. We place our forecasts under review for now, and expect to publish revised forecasts reflecting today’s guidance in the coming days.

Companies: Air Partner
  • 21 Jan 20
LIBERUM: Joules* - Interims as expected; shares could recover quickly

The H1 results at a headline level show the impact of IFRS 16 and no black Friday this year in H1 20, whereas it was included in H1 19. On an underlying basis, sales would have grown +1.3% and we estimate PBT would have risen by a high single digit % vs. the headline decline of c.10%.

Companies: Joules Group
  • 21 Jan 20
Acquisition of Aston Martin and Rolls Royce dealerships

Exciting new additions to the portfolio have been announced, including its 4th Aston Martin dealership, its first Rolls Royce dealership and a foothold in the Edinburgh market in Scotland, where previously it has not had representation. These businesses have been acquired from the administrator of Leven Motors for £1.6m including a freehold property worth £1.5m. Under management control and by deploying Cambria’s proven acquisition and integration processes, these businesses are expected to be earnings neutral and move into profit in the first full year. While using modest assumptions pending their integration we have upgraded FY21 EPS by 2% and with it our fair value estimate to 100p.

Companies: Cambria Automobiles
  • 23 Jan 20
Encouraging rebound

After several profit warnings since the end of 2018, Asos reported an encouraging start to the year. The strong sales volume during the Black Friday weekend across all regions pushed total sales growth to 20%, beating the upper range of consensus expectations.

Companies: ASOS
  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 09 Jan 20
Cenkos: Retail Sector -- Termination of coverage

Due to an analyst departure, Cenkos Securities plc has suspended coverge of the following stocks (see table below). Our previous recommendation and forecasts can no longer be relied upon.

Companies: ASC DC/ HFD HWDN KGF MKS NXT

  • 16 Jan 20
Acquisition and portfolio changes

We note the announcement this morning from Vertu confirming the acquisition of four Volkswagen Passenger car dealerships in West Yorkshire. We also note an update on a number of portfolio changes as management continue to focus on optimal capital allocation. The group has paid a total consideration of £9m, with minimal goodwill of £1.35m. We are leaving our trading assumptions unchanged at this juncture as we anticipate a comprehensive pre closed trading update during the beginning of March, but due to timing anticipate modest dilution to Feb 2020 EPS, albeit expect this transaction to be EPS enhancing during the first full year of ownership (Feb 2021 and beyond). We do however update our net debt forecast to reflect the cash consideration of £9m. We believe the Group is well positioned long term given its strong balance sheet, rising FCF generation (FCF yield in 2021E of 9.9% rising to 11.4% in 2022E) and strong track record of disciplined growth.

Companies: Vertu Motors
  • 17 Jan 20
Online leads to a good finish to 2019

GVC reported good Q4 19 numbers, with total NGR up by 1%, on a cc basis. The strong performance was driven by online (+11% with gaming up 9% and sports up 15%) which offset another quarter of decline in UK retail (-11%). Following the strong Q4, management upgraded its EBITDA expectations to the higher end of the earlier range (£670-680m). Given our slightly aggressive estimates, we do not expect any significant revisions to our estimates or target price.

Companies: GVC
  • 21 Jan 20
Sales beat but price investment

Dixons Carphone (DC) has reported LFL sales growth of +2% and -9% yoy in its main UK trading divisions, Electrical and Mobile Phones over the 10 weeks to 4 January 2020. It also appears to have held PBT guidance for the year to April 2020 at £210m although this is not specifically stated (“we are on track to deliver what we promised for this year..”) The sales out-turn appears to be around a 1% point beat of expectation but the announcement also highlights price investment in the UK electricals segment possible explaining why the company has not raised guidance. We judge that there are no other significant strategy-related comments here.

Companies: Dixons Carphone
  • 17 Dec 19
Transformative acquisition

Air Partner announced the acquisition of Redline Worldwide last week. Redline is a leading global aviation security services business, which provides training, quality assurance and consultancy as well as software services. The total consideration was £10.0m, representing a Mar. ’19 EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.5x. We have incorporated the acquisition into our forecasts, increasing our FY21 PBT forecast by 14% (first full year of ownership). The acquisition is transformative for the Group, significantly increasing the scale of the Consulting & Training (C&T) division, which we now expect to represent 14% of operating profit in FY21 (vs. 6% previously). We believe this deal is attractive with scope for outperformance given significant cross selling opportunities.

Companies: Air Partner
  • 16 Jan 20
LIBERUM: Vertu Motors - VW acquisition

Vertu has acquired four VW dealerships for a total expected cash consideration of £9m. We see the deal as a good strategic fit.

Companies: Vertu Motors
  • 21 Jan 20
Acquisition of Aston Martin and Rolls-Royce dealerships

Cambria has announced this morning the successful acquisition of one Aston Martin franchise and one Rolls-Royce Motor Cars franchise in Edinburgh from the administrator of Leven Cars Group Limited. The total cash consideration, which includes one freehold and one leasehold property along with certain fixed assets, is £1.6m and this will be funded from the Group’s existing resources. We update forecasts to reflect this, with an increase in 2020E revenue of c.2.0% but no impact to earnings. In 2021E we assume an additional £30m of revenue and a 1.6% increase to adj. PBT forecasts (1.6% at the EPS level). We remain firmly confident in Cambria’s ability to continue to execute and outperform the market as it has in recent years and see this latest acquisition as further evidence of the group’s ability to effectively deploy capital and acquire assets at good value.

Companies: Cambria Automobiles
  • 20 Dec 18
Sosandar - Give a girl the right pair of shoes...

Sosandar, the celebrity-endorsed women’s fashion brand, benefits from a simple and scalable capital-light online model, a fast-growing affluent customer base and a robust pipeline of new styles introduced each month. The company is achieving impressive growth across all key performance metrics and has a solid balance sheet to support its rapid expansion in the UK and, we believe, internationally over the medium term.

Companies: Sosandar
  • 11 Jul 19
Diversification and scale for online success

The global online gaming market generated c £40bn of gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 2018 and newly regulating markets (the US) are expected to contribute to 7% CAGR to 2023 (according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC)). However, while regulated markets have provided significant opportunities for operators to date, government intervention remains a constant threat and legislation is tightening. Some mature markets (notably the UK) have been raising taxes and implementing regulatory burdens, which increases the cost of business. In our view, success will depend on a combination of scale, diversification, proprietary technology and a strong balance sheet. Many of the 12 operators in this report should benefit from these dynamics and sector valuations remain attractive, at 12.6x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 6.0% dividend yield for FY19.

Companies: 888 ACX BETSB ORPH GVC GYS OPAP PTEC RNK WMH

  • 10 Sep 19
Cenkos: Arena Events Group Plc - H1/19A Interim Results

Arena's interim results showed strong revenue growth, driven primarily by acquisitions, along with modest LFL growth. We expect a strong performance in the Middle East to be offset by a more challenging environment in the UK and the US, leading us to revise our forecasts downwards.

Companies: Arena Events