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    SCHIFFFAHRTSGES DES VIERWALD

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  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 13 May 19

Cenkos: Angling Direct Plc - Exceptional Growth

FY19A has been a transformational year for Angling Direct as they continue to grow their business both in the UK and abroad. This set of strong numbers solidifies their position as the retailer of choice for anglers. We believe the Group has a sustainable competitive advantage through the loyalty of its niche customer base and is now able to improve margins through cost led initiatives and its increased pricing power. Buy

Companies: Angling Direct
  • 16 May 19

Hopeless

The group’s activities (especially Tour Operator) have continued to be impacted by the tougher pricing environment resulting from the stiffer market competition and the uncertain consumer environment during the first half of the year. And these trends will continue for the rest of the year. Therefore, management has guided that the underlying operating profit in H2 will be lower than in the same period last year, which implies that the FY underlying operating profit will be at least 35% lower than current consensus expectations.

Companies: Thomas Cook Group
  • 10 May 19

LIBERUM: Air Partner* - Flat FY profits but encouraging progress in the US and Freight

Flat PBT was in line with management's guidance and our forecasts. Encouraging progress in the US and Freight represented sustained momentum in areas that were the focus of recruitment in previous years.

Companies: Air Partner
  • 16 May 19

LIBERUM: Safestyle* - Sales recovering to plan, margins taking longer

Safestyle's AGM trading update brings the welcome news that recovery is being achieved in revenues and profitability, with revenue growth of 17% expected this year and gross margins up 450bp in H1. However, expectations were higher than this and so we bring our 2019E PBT forecast down from £4.5m to £0.7m.

Companies: Safestyle UK
  • 16 Apr 19

Q1 2019 AIM Review

2019 started well for investors with U.S. stocks rallying on the back of trade talks between China and the U.S. resuming. Sterling rebounded in Q1 2019 as expectations built the UK would avoid a “no deal” Brexit, providing a further tailwind to more internationally focused UK companies. This sentiment spread across the globe and filtered its way down into small caps.

Companies: PRSM KMK SYS RAI MNO CCS MANO CBOX KGH

  • 03 May 19

The Monthly May 2019

How small- and mid-cap quoted companies make a substantial contribution to markets, employment and tax revenues.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB ARBB CMH CLIG DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR OXB PCA PHP RE/ STX SIXH TRX TON VTA W7L

  • 10 May 19

Relatively good trading performance

Compared to its European legacy competitors, IAG released a positive first quarterly operating profit despite the challenging industry conditions (higher fuel price, negative FX impact and lower fares resulting from the higher capacity growth in the industry).

Companies: International Consolidated Airlns Grp
  • 20 Dec 18

Sosandar - Give a girl the right pair of shoes...

Sosandar, the celebrity-endorsed women’s fashion brand, benefits from a simple and scalable capital-light online model, a fast-growing affluent customer base and a robust pipeline of new styles introduced each month. The company is achieving impressive growth across all key performance metrics and has a solid balance sheet to support its rapid expansion in the UK and, we believe, internationally over the medium term.

Companies: Sosandar
  • 08 May 19

LIBERUM: Vertu Motors* - 8% FY19 PBT beat, strong cash

Vertu's FY19 adj. PBT of £23.7m is 8% ahead of our estimate and net debt of £0.3m is better than our £9.8m forecast. FY19 was a difficult year, but with a resilient outcome. FY20E is also likely to be tough, given continued Brexit uncertainty, but trading is in line with management's expectations and we make no change to our FY20E PBT.

Companies: Vertu Motors
  • 15 May 19

Europe remains challenging

Compass released a good set of H1 19 results. The encouraging organic growth was mainly driven by the solid performance in North America and the good improvement in Europe (especially the significant Defence contract wins in the UK). However, several major contracts in Europe still in the ramp-up phase, higher mobilisation costs and the weaker high street trading environment in the UK, should all continue to put pressure on profitability for the rest of the year.

Companies: Compass Group
  • 16 May 19

AGM Trading Update

Safestyle has announced a trading statement ahead of its Annual General Meeting to be held today. Top-line sales continue to recover and the orderbook is rebuilding following a period of significant operational disruption during FY18. However, a slower than anticipated recovery in profitability means FY19 earnings guidance moves lower. Beyond this, we take encouragement from the momentum seen in the Group’s order book, management’s commitment to the clearly defined turnaround plan, and the ‘cautious optimism’ for a step up in profitability in FY20, leaving our FY20 forecasts unchanged.

Companies: Safestyle UK
  • 16 May 19

Completion of Cocosa disposal. Trading conditions remain challenging

Following the RNS 2 weeks ago, MySale has today confirmed the disposal to Brandalley UK of its UK business Cocosa has completed (for £1.5m). The review of its SE Asia operations, which generated c11% of group revenue in FY18 (and incurred a loss) is ongoing. This is in line with the group's strategy to rationalise its non-ANZ divisions and focus on its sizeable core ANZ markets where there is significant growth potential. However, the update indicates current trading remains challenging and that the focus is on reducing the cost base, where it continues to make progress. Once these changes are completed, the more streamlined and focused approach will allow MySale to provide an improved offering for its customers and brand partners with the aim of rebuilding profitability. For now though, and pending clarity around the various changes to the group and their financial effects, we are temporarily withdrawing forecasts.

Companies: Mysale Group
  • 17 May 19

Reassuring trading performance

easyJet published an encouraging set of H1 19 results, in line with consensus expectations. As expected, the lower air fares resulting from fierce industry competition and a higher cost environment deepened the operating loss in the first half. However, despite the continuing challenging trading environment and macro-economic uncertainties in Europe, the FY19 guidance remains unchanged.

Companies: easyJet
  • 21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT