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    SCHIFFFAHRTSGES DES VIERWALD

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    SCHIFFFAHRTSGES DES VIERWALD

  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 04 Nov 19

THE MONTHLY November 2019

The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L

  • 20 Nov 19

Class act in sector, with a clear growth strategy

Management continues to execute a clear data-led strategy to grow revenue to £1bn and produce attractive returns. Recent actions to transform the brand mix and increase profits produced clear results in FY19, with EPS beating expectations that had been upgraded twice and increasing 25% YoY. Freehold backing is >80p/share and another new multi-brand site is in the course of development, which has the potential to attract incremental new brands. CAMB also has funding available to target M&A. The rating looks undemanding given the clear track record and future growth plans, and our recently upgraded estimate of fair value remains unchanged at 98p.

Companies: Cambria Automobiles
  • 13 Nov 19

Robust margin forecast supported by a better-diversified portfolio

The bolt-on acquisition of Air Europa is expected to strengthen the group’s overall performance by reason of more synergy effects. However, the downward outlook frustrates the market.

Companies: International Consolidated Airlns Grp
  • 20 Nov 19

Stellar performance

Cambria has delivered another strong set of FY results, which were ahead of our forecasts despite numerous upgrades during the course of the year. We upgrade our 2020E and 2021E forecasts to take account of the 2019 outperformance. It is clear that the move into Premium/HLS is making a real difference and has been executed well. We remain confident in Cambria’s ability to deliver further strong shareholder value from here.

Companies: Cambria Automobiles
  • 20 Nov 19

Now a pan-European player in both airlines and package holidays

EasyJet’s FY results met market expectations and guidance. The company is aiming to be a net-zero carbon airline and will build up the package holiday business from the UK to the rest of Europe.

Companies: easyJet
  • 20 Dec 18

Sosandar - Give a girl the right pair of shoes...

Sosandar, the celebrity-endorsed women’s fashion brand, benefits from a simple and scalable capital-light online model, a fast-growing affluent customer base and a robust pipeline of new styles introduced each month. The company is achieving impressive growth across all key performance metrics and has a solid balance sheet to support its rapid expansion in the UK and, we believe, internationally over the medium term.

Companies: Sosandar
  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 16 Jul 19

Results ahead of expectations, positive outlook


Companies: Fulham Shore
  • 15 Nov 19

Early encouragement

Following the recent 1H Results we are upgrading our recommendation from Hold to Buy. This reflects valuation, the financial disciplines being brought to bear as the company mitigates difficult trading conditions as it is investing and mainly our view that Halfords is beginning to see the benefits of work to make it more future-ready. The re-launch of the suite of group web sites onto an integrated platform in 4Q should help the improvements to date transition from AutoCentres to the Retail business.

Companies: Halfords Group
  • 15 Nov 19

Good Q3, UK pain less than expected

Flutter reported a good Q3 19 performance. Sales came in at £533m, up 9% at cc. The soft online performance (-1%) was more than offset by strong growth in the US (+67%) and Australia (+19%), both of which beat our expectations. Though retail reported another quarter of decline (-9%), the drop was less than expected. Following the good showing, we will be upgrading our estimates and target price.

Companies: Flutter Entertainment
  • 18 Nov 19

On track

DWF has announced a robust HY20 trading update, which confirms it is on track to hit our FY expectations. We maintain our forecasts, and believe the Group is well placed to deliver on the promises made at IPO.

Companies: DWF Group
  • 20 Nov 19

Yet another subdued quarter

Kingfisher’s poor performance continued in Q3 FY19/20 – lfl sales declined 3.7% with most of the banners in the red. Operational inefficiencies, lower promotional activity and challenging market condition kept the top-line under pressure, especially in France (-6.1%). With no respite in sight, management anticipates the softness to persist in Q4 FY19/20.

Companies: Kingfisher
  • 21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH FLTR PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT

  • 26 Oct 18

Q318 IMS

The Pendragon share price has demonstrated resilience in the context of the wider liquidity squeeze in UK small and mid cap stocks that has recently driven a rotation in sentiment from growth to value. Whilst the group cannot be immune to wider industry pressures highlighted in the Q318 IMS, we believe the clear strategy to build its used car business and software platform will provide for a return to growth in FY19. This will be funded through strategic disposals and lower capital commitments to the new car market. This includes the potential sale of the group’s US Motor Group which would contribute to a planned £200m swing from a net debt position to a cash rich group over coming years. Whilst our Neutral stance acknowledges the negative sector sentiment that is unlikely to unwind short term, we remain alert to buying opportunities into any weakness.

Companies: Pendragon