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  • 19 Jul 19

ASOS warning highlights boohoo’s strengths

ASOS Plc released a trading statement yesterday, with operational issues in both its European and US warehouses resulting in weaker than anticipated P3 performance and a downgrade to the outlook for the full year to 31 August 2019. The ASOS update serves to highlight the relative strengths of boohoo Group model, in our view, and reaffirms our belief that it deserves to trade at a premium to its peer. Boohoo has repeatedly proven its ability to invest ahead of growth and manage significant operational change with minimal disruption to trading. By owning all of its brands outright, boohoo also has full control of its own destiny. In addition, the diverging financial positions of the two companies is in stark contrast as boohoo continues to build its cash pile with £194m on its balance sheet, whilst ASOS has seen debt rise to c.1.0x EBITDA in a matter of months. We believe boohoo presents a compelling opportunity to invest in a fast-growing ecommerce business that is both profitable and cash generative. Trading on an FY20 PER of 44.3x, falling to 35.2x in FY21, we believe this rating is more than justified given the Group’s strong and consistent track record of profitable growth.

Companies: Boohoo.Com
  • 16 Jul 19

Small Cap Feast

Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited the IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m. Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business with a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raising EUR135m with market cap on admission of EUR309.6m, expected 17 July 2019. Roxi Music UK music streaming service plans London IPO as it goes up against Spotify. They have appointed investment bank Arden Partners for an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange later this year.

Companies: CALL BIRD ABC KDR EMAN BST SCE ZEG SAG FUL

  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 15 Jul 19

The tide has turned

Recent events, notably Greece’s switch to a more business-friendly administration after its General Election last weekend, continue to shift the prevailing political and economic winds in Minoan’s favour. This result followed the swing to the right in the Regional, Municipal, and European elections in May. This update provides a very brief summary of the current economic and political backdrop in which the group operates. We intend to follow this with a further more detailed note as the project’s value and realisation become more evident.

Companies: Minoan Group
  • 17 Jul 19

Encouraging Early Signs

Koovs latest update covering 1Q 2019/20 shows good recovery from a weak comparative in-line with its own and consensus estimates. Improvement in web traffic +148% yoy, conversion (orders/visit) and trading margin (gross margin) all suggest that the initial phase of trading with the benefit of adequate funding is going according to plan. The company has stated that it is happy with current year consensus estimates which we believe are for Gross Order Value (GOV) of £22-23m and EBITDA of c£17m loss.

Companies: Koovs
  • 18 Jul 19

Guidance downgraded once again

Asos disappointed the market in its four months to June. Sales growth slowed down to 11% with poor growth in Europe and the US. Guidance was downgraded to around 11% full-year growth and PBT in the range of £30-35m.

Companies: ASOS
  • 02 Jul 19

THE MONTHLY July 2019

When advisers first start looking at business relief (BR) products, there is much to take in: the rules governing such products; the investment strategies being used; and what the investment risk is. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that, for non-AIM products, the investment is being made directly into a company or partnership, rather than a fund. It is, therefore, essential that governance is part of the diligence process.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SIXH TRX TON SHED VAL VTA W7L

  • 18 Jul 19

Good quarter is leading to better full-year visibility

easyJet has just announced very encouraging Q3 19 results. Total revenue per seat has increased by 0.7% to £60.84, which is a positive sign as the industry’s average air fares have been under pressure due to the substantial seat-capacity growth in the European sky.

Companies: easyJet
  • 03 Jul 19

Focus on clear brand leaders

Purplebricks’ results for the year to 30 April 2019 rose 55% to £136.5m of revenue (above the midpoint of the £130m to £140m revenue range guidance provided in the 21 February and 7 May trading updates)

Companies: Purplebricks Group
  • 12 Jul 19

Tougher trading in Q2

Lookers have released a trading statement this morning essentially confirming that trading has deteriorated during Q2, which is consistent with our current sector thesis. As a result, we are downgrading our forecasts to reflect this. While Lookers no doubt has issues to deal with, we do believe there is significant value at current levels trading on 6.0x downgraded 2019E EPS, a dividend yield of 8.8% with cover still at 1.9x based on our revised EPS, property assets at 78p per share and net tangible assets at 45p per share, demonstrating the deep value we believe exists.

Companies: Lookers
  • 15 Jul 19

LIBERUM: DP Eurasia* - Resilient first half; outlook improved; strong BUY

1H’19 ended with a much improved LfL growth trend in Turkey (+7.7% in 1H’19), while Russia (+4.7% LfL) was impacted by a tough comp from the FIFA World Cup in 1H’18. The shift to online channels continues to be the biggest growth driver with online system sales LfL growth of 24.1% in Turkey and 16.9% in Russia.

Companies: DP Eurasia
  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 18 Jul 19

New year started with a bang

The important information from Koovs’ FY19 results is not the results for the year but the trading since the company secured its additional financing. With Gross Order Value (GOV) up 104% in 1Q20, Koovs is once more showing the sort of growth associated with online success. FY19 itself was a lost year, as the company conserved cash while it successfully sought new investors; they eventually arrived – not only with money but with important synergistic benefits too. The GOV data is a function of being able to finance growth again. The benefits of the Future Lifestyle (FLFL) tie-up are still to come in additional distribution and improved buying.

Companies: Koovs
  • 05 Feb 19

THE MONTHLY February 2019

This Investment Research Paper addresses the issue of renewable power generation in the UK and in mainland Europe, which – after the deep-seated financial crisis of 2008/09 and the ensuing recession – now has better prospects of achieving critical mass. It also considers investment perspectives.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT DISH BUR CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 12 Jun 19

A Solid Start to FY20

Boohoo Group has announced a solid start to FY20 in its Q1 trading statement released this morning. Revenue for the Group is up an impressive 39% YOY to £254.3m, ahead of ZC expectations (+32%) and market consensus (+35%), and against strong Q1 FY19 comparatives (+52%). There was growth across all brands and regions, with the Group continuing to take market share. This positive performance reflects the relevance and strength of the Group’s proposition, further evidenced by it topping the UK Hitwise rankings for the first time in May. Margin performance remains solid, with Group gross margin broadly stable YOY at 55.0% (Q1 FY19: 55.2%). The group was cash flow positive in the quarter with net cash on the balance sheet of £194m at the period end versus £191m at FY19 year end and £151m a year ago. Full year guidance is unchanged at this early stage of the year and we make no change to our forecasts this morning, although see upside risk to our numbers should the momentum seen in the initial three months of FY20 continue. We believe the boohoo Group offers an attractive opportunity to invest in a fast-growing ecommerce business that is both profitable and cash generative. Trading on an FY20 PER of 47.6x, falling to 37.9x in FY21, we believe this rating is justified given the Group’s strong and consistent track record of profitable growth.

Companies: Boohoo.Com