21 Feb 2024
First Take: BAE Systems - FY23 results; FCF and Orders stand out
This content is only available within our institutional offering.
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
First Take: BAE Systems - FY23 results; FCF and Orders stand out
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,687 -261.5 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 50,639m
- Published:
21 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
4 -
Strong momentum
The business is performing strongly – over the last 3 years, it has delivered 20% sales growth, orderbook growth of 50%, margin expansion of 80 bps, delivered over 100% cash conversion and returned £4.2bn to shareholders.
BAE has delivered FY adj EPS of 63.2p representing 14% growth and slightly (1%) above consensus.
Sales was 2% above consensus. Sales growth was led by Maritime which grew 22%. RoS was flat as very high maritime sales at regulated profit rates diluted RoS.
FCF is the standout at £2.6bn - £0.8bn or 41% above consensus due to increased advances & good cash management. The underlying is probably c.£0.3bn better from good performance and new orders.
Moreover, order intake is even higher than last year - a record £38bn – the Backlog is now £69.8bn (up £10.9bn).
Strategic progress has been strong with AUKUS, GCAP and the Ball Aerospace acquisition (c70% space exposure).
Dividend up 11% - final dividend 18.5p (30p in total for year).
Outlook
FY24 is set to be a strong year of growth, but is seen as just the start of a long cycle.
FY24 EPS growth of 6-8% on sales growth of 10-12% – higher tax charge 21% vs 19%, Air Astana 1% dilutive, Ball Aerospace looks likely to be accretive from FY25 onwards - £500m of buybacks modelled. FCF in excess of £1.3bn
FY24 guidance includes the 10/12ths impact of Ball Aerospace and Air Astana partial disposal (proceeds NOT in the FCF guide)
Valuation
Valuation (pre Ball): CY24E EV/EBITDA 10.9x and DY 2.3%. The strength of its global and diverse portfolio, backlog and on-going uptick in overall performance will be of note to more international investors. Buy, TP placed under review (from 1200p).