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01 Aug 2024
First Take: BAE Systems - Performing well; guidance upgraded
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First Take: BAE Systems - Performing well; guidance upgraded
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,682 16.8 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 50,481m
- Published:
01 Aug 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
4 -
H1 results summary
BAE reports interim H1 sales (+11%), EBIT (+11%), and EPS (+6%) all slightly above (2-3%) consensus expectations.
All sectors are growing well, with P&S and Maritime leading the way organically (+10% organic).
Electronic Systems sales grew 34% as this includes 4 months of Space and Mission Systems contribution.
The supply chain is clearly being well managed.
A record Order Backlog of £74bn (vs. £66bn at H1’23) continues to provide great visibility.
£15.1bn of orders in H1 (Book to Bill >1.1x), with the largest order being Hunter Class Frigates in Australia at £4.6bn.
Shareholder returns
The interim dividend increased 8% to 12.4p.
The follow-on £1.5bn buyback programme commenced immediately after completion of the prior £1.5bn, 3-year programme was completed in 2 years.
FY guidance upgraded for all key metrics
EPS growth increases to +7-9% from +6-8% on FY23A EPS of 63.2p and FCF of >£1.5bn from >£1.3bn.
Valuation / our view
On our prior existing estimates, the shares are on a CY24E P/E of 19.4x falling to 17.1x next year, and CY24E EV/EBITDA of 11.5x, falling to 10.1x next year.
The Group looks well set for long-term growth; recent company visits and meetings in Barrow-in-Furness (see note) and Farnborough reaffirmed this. Buy and 1500p TP reiterated.