12 Nov 2024
First Take: BAE Systems - Reaffirms FY guidance
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First Take: BAE Systems - Reaffirms FY guidance
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,687 -261.5 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 50,639m
- Published:
12 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
4 -
Performing well
The business continues to perform well; guidance across all metrics is unchanged from upgraded guidance at H1 in August.
Explicit guidance: Sales +12-14% from £25,284m, Adj EBIT +12-14% from £2,268m, Adj EPS +7-9% and 2024 FCF >£1.5bn.
Order intake is c.£25bn year-to-date with another six weeks to go in the year. Notable contract awards in H2 so far include: M109 Self-Propelled Howitzers and M992A3 Ammunition Carriers - $493m, Guided weapon components - A$270m to boost production in Australia and Order intake of around €2.5bn from the Group's share of MBDA joint venture.
The Group is positioned well for continued growth in the years ahead.
The balance sheet remains strong. Up to £1.5bn SBB programme announced in August 2023, commenced on 25th July 2024 and c£1.4bn expected cash returned to shareholders this year (SBB and 2023 final dividend).
Valuation:
Shares are on a CY24E P/E of 21.1x falling to 18.6x next year, and CY24E EV/EBITDA of 12.5x, falling to 10.9x next year.
More EU defence funding:
The FT today carries an exclusive story on the EU’s plans to change its spending policies to potentially redirect tens of billions of euros to defence and security.
It highlights Brussels’ intention to free up money from its cohesion funds, money that is aimed at reducing economic inequality among EU countries. These funds currently comprise a third of the bloc’s common budget, or €392bn from 2021 to 2027. Only about 5% of these funds have been spent to date, with the biggest beneficiaries spending even less. But under existing rules, they cannot be used to purchase defence equipment or directly finance the military. Member states will be told in coming weeks that they will now have more flexibility under the rules to redirect cohesion funds to support their defence industries and military mobility projects.