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13 Nov 2023
First Take: BAE Systems - Strong order intake; FY in-line

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First Take: BAE Systems - Strong order intake; FY in-line
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,981 663.6 1.7% | Mkt Cap: 59,540m
- Published:
13 Nov 2023 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Saul Larthe -
Pages:
4 -
Strong order intake
Trading has been in line with the upgraded guidance issued at H1. This represents another year of good earnings growth, together with strong cash flow generation.
The key highlight is that strong order intake continues with c.£10bn booked since half-year – bringing YTD to >£30bn.
This excludes the recent MBDA Poland announcement that is likely booked in Q1 next year (£4b UK-Poland agreement with MBDA; BAE own 37.5%).
Notable contract awards include the £3.9b funding for the next phase of the AUKUS submarine programme, $797m to begin AMPV full rate production, and $800m under multiple awards for Bradley fighting vehicles and upgrades.
The opportunity pipeline remains strong, and the update reinforces the long-term growth outlook.
With a sharp focus on operational performance and disciplined capital allocation, performance is good, while the share buyback is ongoing (a further £1.5b was announced at H1).
The Ball Aerospace acquisition clearance is tracking along as expected.
Valuation (pre Ball): CY24E EV/EBITDA 10.0x, P/E 16.7x, FCF Yield 5.3%, DY 2.7%.
Investec conference
The CFO and IR are presenting at our conference today.
Next catalyst: Preliminary results in February 2024.