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16 Dec 2019
Chemring : Beyond 2020 vision: a path to 400p - Buy

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Chemring : Beyond 2020 vision: a path to 400p - Buy
Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON) | 416 -4.2 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 1,134m
- Published:
16 Dec 2019 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
17 -
FY19 results are in-line with our recently-upgraded forecasts, following the first upgrade to numbers we can remember at the post-close update. Revenue increased 13% and operating profit increased 42%. Adj. EPS increased by 64%. Sensors finished the year strongly, led by the jewel in the crown that is Roke, and Countermeasures has delivered well against targets for a production ramp-up as upgraded sites come back online.
A higher quality business: FY19A marks the first year of no exceptionals in over 10 years, which will flag positively on quality screens. Operating cash conversion was 104% (of EBITDA), with working capital discipline being ingrained across the Group. Exiting from non-core, commoditised, energetics businesses is complete, with the quality of the order book now improved.
Improvement continuing apace: FY19 was a transformative year, and upgraded and expanded Countermeasures sites will still be in ramp up in FY20. The full benefit of the investment and expansion programme should be seen more clearly in FY21/22, with profitability and cash generation on an upwards trajectory: post-capex cash conversion inflects in FY20E.
Longer-term upside in Sensors & Information: We discuss the upside potential from possible further contract wins in US Sensors Programmes of Record. During FY19, further delivery orders were received under the HMDS IDIQ, and the recent order for further AVCAD prototypes increases the probability of a full-rate production award.
Re-rating potential: Chemring’s discount to peers is now unwarranted, in our view – operational issues have been fixed and financial performance is being delivered. Our 12m TP is unchanged at 245p, and implies 14x EV/EBIT. BUY.