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14 Apr 2020
Chemring : COVID update should reassure - Buy

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Chemring : COVID update should reassure - Buy
Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON) | 414 14.5 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 1,129m
- Published:
14 Apr 2020 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
7 -
All sites are open: The vast majority of sites have been designated as critical to defence and national security, namely in the US, UK and Norway. Risk of interruption in Australia is low. Most manufacturing sites are remote.
>90% order cover: Order placement has continued since the update last month, including a $17m order for F-35 countermeasures. On 29 February, FY20 order cover was 88% and seasonality had reduced, with 28% of FY20E revenue delivered (vs 23%). Progress has been made across all divisions.
Cautious cut: We reduce FY20E adj EPS by 7% to reflect: 1) risk of short term revenue deferrals where customer representatives are not able to complete product acceptance procedures, and 2) minor civil exposure. The wide geographic and customer base provides mitigation against further disruption.
Financial position: The Group has facilities of almost £150m that mature in October 2022. Current net debt is £84m (vs £86m at end Feb), comprising cash of £33m and drawings under the RCF of £108m. Therefore, available liquidity is approximately £73m. We will review our capex assumptions at H1.
Unchanged dividend: The FY19 (Oct y/e) final dividend of 2.4p (£6.7m) was approved at the AGM on 4 March and will be paid on 24 April. There is no mention of the interim dividend that would be announced with results in June.
Our view: The shares have fallen 15% ytd and by 30% since the peak in February, which appears an over-reaction. Despite a conservative estimate cut to reflect disruption from COVID-19, a CY20E EV/EBIT of 12x looks attractive given the improving order book, financial position and long term upside potential. The bull case across Countermeasures, Roke and US Sensors remains intact and we point investors to our ‘Path to 400p’ note, published in December.