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17 Oct 2024
Chemring : Order book up 28% - Buy

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Chemring : Order book up 28% - Buy
Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON) | 561 50.5 1.6% | Mkt Cap: 1,527m
- Published:
17 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
7 -
Order momentum: YTD order intake was +6% to £638m and the order book was +28% to £1,108m. FY25E revenue cover is building well, with Countermeasures & Energetics (C&E) having 95% (2023: 87%) cover and the shorter cycle Sensors & Information (S&I) sector having 47% (2023: 54%) cover. In C&E, order cover for FY26E and FY27E revenues are currently 75% and 45% respectively, demonstrating long-term demand.
C&E growth: In Norway, Chemring Nobel is expected to end the year with another record order book. This business is receiving considerable capex funding from the EC and Norwegian government; it’s encouraging to see the first £19.5m has been received and a feasibility study for a new site is underway. The three Energetic businesses are seeing strong demand with combined order intake up 32%. Countermeasure orders grew 8%; we note a small order from MBDA USA for a new naval infra-red decoy, which was the first US production order that CCM UK has received in over 10 years.
S&I progress: Orders were received from Lithuania, Latvia and the UAE for Roke’s Resolve EW system. Furthermore, Roke was selected for research funding in the first AUKUS innovation Challenge. US Sensors is in line.
Outlook / estimates: On track to deliver FY24 adj EBIT within the range of expectations and well positioned to grow revenue to c.£1bn by 2030. We cut FY24E adj EPS by 4% to 19.2p for our latest FX, mix, interest, tax and buyback cadence assumptions. Our FY25E & 26E adj EPS are cut 7-9%, largely for interest and tax revisions (to 3-7% below consensus).
Valuation: FY25E EV/EBITDA of 10.4x is attractive for mid-teen margins, L-T demand and rising ROIC in outer years aided by customer funded capex.