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18 Mar 2024
Chemring : Significant funding awards - Buy

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Chemring : Significant funding awards - Buy
Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON) | 544 -5.4 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 1,479m
- Published:
18 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
6 -
Summary: The day after winning Tech Business of the Year at the PLC Awards for Roke, Chemring’s Nobel energetics business in Norway received awards totalling €67m (£57m) from the EC, matched with funding of 428m NOK (£32m) from the Government of Norway. The EC award is part of the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (“ASAP”) programme, a direct response to the EC’s call in March 2023 to urgently deliver ammunition, and missiles if requested, to Ukraine and help Member States refill their stocks.
Estimates: Terms are not yet known; agreements are expected to be signed over the coming months. Funds will arrive in stages; we await further detail at H1 results in June. As a reminder, the £120m investment plan across the three Energetics sites is expected to deliver incremental revenue of £85m with a c.25% margin from FY27. £65m of the total planned investment was destined for Norway over 3yrs. This award might provide £50m of that £65m, possibly from next year. The remaining £40m funding award in Norway, requires Board approval for capex of c. £55m for further RDX/HMX capacity and will benefit numbers beyond our published forecast period.
Q1 reminder: The update on 23 Feb signalled a closing Q1 order book up 52% to £991m, providing FY cover of 87% and extended duration. Notable EW orders were received from Sweden and Japan, representing Roke’s first in East-Asia. Severe weather in Norway and Tennessee slowed Q1 operations and will cause a heavier H2 EBIT bias (c.70% vs. 62% last year).
Valuation: The shares are currently on a FY24E P/E of 17.3x and EV/EBITDA of 10.2x, falling to 15.7x and 9.6x respectively in FY25E. Pre expansion capex and funding awards, forward FCF yields are 7-8%.