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08 Jun 2022
Chemring : Straight bat - Buy

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Chemring : Straight bat - Buy
Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON) | 539 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 1,468m
- Published:
08 Jun 2022 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
11 -
H1 results: Interims were in line, following the upgrade with the AGM update. Revenue increased by 11% (8% at constant currency) and operating margins improved 100bps to 15.2%, resulting in Adj. EPS increasing by 27% vs H121 (22% at constant currency). The interim dividend was increased by 19% to 1.9p. Divisionally, Sensors & Information momentum continues with Roke again delivering double-digit growth in orders, revenue, and profit. Roke remains well placed. Countermeasures & Energetics continues to improve profitability as a result of operational improvements across the segment.
Deployable balance sheet: Net debt of £18.5m was 52% better vs H121, and represents just 0.2x ND/EBITDA. Strong operating cash conversion continued at 101%, with 3-year rolling operating conversion of 106%. Management have built a strong track record of improving Chemring and appear ready for more.
FY outlook: H2 order cover is 85% (H121 92%). Utility inflation, discretionary investment in Roke in H2, and adverse US order timing are expected to offset current FX tailwinds and the expected improved H1 weighting this year.
Estimate changes: Our profit estimates are unchanged after mix tweaks. This implies an H2 operating profit bias of 48% vs. 52% last year. We increase post IFRS 16 Net debt by £5m to £20m to reflect a new operating lease in Woking.
Our view: While the upgrade cycle pauses, winning the war against current cost inflation is commendable. Longer-term potential has increased due to current geopolitical uncertainty. Outer year estimates have headroom to rise. Our SOTP-based 12m TP remains 430p and our Bull Case valuation of 522p is intact. Multi-year visibility, a strong balance sheet, and scarcity value (a mid-teens margin defensive with strong cash conversion), combined with the shift in the NATO defence outlook allows confidence in long-term prospects. Buy. TP 430p.