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17 Dec 2024
Chemring : To prevent war, spend more - Buy

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Chemring : To prevent war, spend more - Buy
Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON) | 544 27.2 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 1,479m
- Published:
17 Dec 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
11 -
FY24 summary: Reported revenue, adj. EBIT and adj. EPS increased by 8%, 3% and -4% respectively, and by 9%, 4% and -3% at constant currency. Roke revenue was up 16% to £185m. DPS is increased by 13%. Underlying cash conversion was 102% leading to ND of £53m, being 0.6x EBITDA.
Outlook: The Board’s 2025 expectations remain in line with market expectations, with a similar H2 bias. Approx. 77% (2023: 79%) of expected 2025 revenue is already covered by the order book. If the recently announced orders were included, it would have stood at £1.3bn, up 43%. The pressure to spend more on defence is escalating.
Mindset shift: Last week, the NATO Secretary General said “To the defence industry I say: You need to do everything you can to keep us safe. There’s money on the table, and it will only increase. Put in the extra shifts and new production lines! And finally, to the citizens of NATO countries, I say: Tell your banks and pension funds it is simply unacceptable that they refuse to invest in the defence industry.”
Estimates: We cut adj. EPS in FY25E by 4% to 19.7p for NI and buyback cessation (the Board decided the remaining £13m is better utilised in ongoing operations) and in FY26E by 1% to 21.7p. We introduce FY27E, when we forecast a step up in earnings for new Energetics capacity.
Valuation: The shares trade on an FY25E P/E of 18.4x and EV/EBITDA of 10.5x, which is attractive given the prospects, particularly in Energetics and Roke. Furthermore, a 3% discount to the defence sector average, despite operating margins >200bps higher, is striking. We roll forward our SoTP-based 12M valuation, maintaining our 480p TP. We reiterate our BUY.