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28 Jul 2022
Cohort : 90% order cover - Buy
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Cohort : 90% order cover - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,252 450.7 3.0% | Mkt Cap: 588.2m
- Published:
28 Jul 2022 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
9 -
FY summary: Unaudited prelims show performance in line with guidance and robust cash generation taking net funds to £11m. Revenue of £138m (4% decline), adj EBITA of £15.5m (11% margin), adj (FD) EPS of 31.1p and DPS of 12.2p compare to our estimates of £149m, £15.5m, 30.0p and 12.2p respectively. High margin MASS remains the largest contributor representing 46% of profit pre central costs. Improvement at MCL, SEA and a strong first FY contribution from ELAC countered weaker Chess and EID performance.
Outlook: Customers’ response to the situation in Ukraine had some positive business impact in FY22 and this is expected to increase. The year has started in line and the outlook is encouraging. A record year end order book of £291m represented a 20% increase and a lengthening of visibility. Moreover, FY23 order coverage has risen to 90% in early July following contract wins in the first two months. Management expect lower (but positive) net funds at 30 April 2023 as a result of planned capex and expansion of working capital.
Estimates: Overall, management expect to achieve continued growth at a modest level, unchanged from guidance in May. As such, our earnings estimates are largely unchanged except for mix and a slight increase in tax assumption in FY24E. We also introduce estimates for FY25E.
Retirement: Co-founder (in 2006) and 22% shareholder Stanley Carter has decided not to stand for re-election as a NED at the AGM in September.
Our view: The Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns around China support overall increasing levels of defence spending. Cohort stands out as a long term beneficiary within the SMID cap names and there are now few ways for investors to gain niche defence exposure (e.g., C4ISTAR & anti-sub warfare).