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17 Jul 2024
Cohort : Advancing on all fronts - Buy
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Cohort : Advancing on all fronts - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,217 73 0.5% | Mkt Cap: 571.8m
- Published:
17 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Lydia Kenny -
Pages:
13 -
FY24 summary: Prelims show performance ahead of expectations with revenue of £203m (11% increase), adj. EBIT of £21.1m (11% increase & 10.4% margin), and adj. EPS of 42.9p. These compare to our estimates of £187m, £20.6m (11.0% margin), and 36.5p. Adj. EPS was 17.5% above our estimate due to lower tax than assumed overseas (Germany & Portugal) and a 2% adj. EBIT beat. Strong cash generation took net funds to £23.1m. DPS, which has increased every year since IPO in 2006, rises by 10%.
FY25 outlook: Order intake grew 78%, the closing order book grew by 58%, and current FY25 cover now stands at 95%, including recent wins. The start to 2024/25 has been encouraging. Management expects another year of good growth in-line with expectations, enhanced by the £3m acquisition of ITS, which produces manuals for armoured vehicles. Given planned capex and expansion in working capital, net funds are likely to decrease.
Estimates: We increase FY25E/26E adj. EBIT by 5%/6% to £24m/£27m, adj. EPS by 3%/4% to 43.7p/47.8p and introduce FY27E. Our net cash estimate in FY25E is unchanged at £15m, but improves by 7.5% to £23m in FY26E.
Our view & valuation: Momentum continues and the potential for further significant progress remains strong. We believe the Group is capable of mid-teen margins by FYApril’27, implying >25% upside to existing assumptions, largely driven by EID orders positively inflecting and export orders for SEA naval systems and CHESS ground-based air defence. The shares are on a CY25E EV/EBITDA of 9.0x, which compares to the NTM 5-year averages of 10.1x. Our TP rises to 980p from 850p, reflecting improving prospects, balance sheet strength, and scarcity value.