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26 May 2022
Cohort : Cash beat. Outlook improving - Buy
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Cohort : Cash beat. Outlook improving - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,210 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 568.5m
- Published:
26 May 2022 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
7 -
FY22 cash beat: The FY (to 30 April) update shows net funds of £11m vs. our estimate of £0m, and vs. £2.5m at the same point last year. We understand some of this is due to timing but some benefit can be kept. Trading performance was in line, although on slightly weaker revenue (we await detail at prelims in July). Stronger performances came from MCL, SEA, ELAC and MASS, offset by weaker performances from Chess and EID.
Strong demand: A record closing order book of £287m vs. £242m in April 2021. The closing order book underpins nearly £113m of revenue for this year.
FY23 outlook: Overall, despite residual challenges of the pandemic and uncertain economic conditions, management expect to resume organic growth and are not changing expectations for the current financial year. We are encouraged to hear that self-help at Chess is starting to show through.
Estimate changes: Our P&L estimates are unchanged, which seek FY22E and FY23E adj PBT of £15m and £18m on revenue of £149m and £162m. We upgrade our FY22E net cash estimate to £11m from £0m and carry forward some benefit to outer years. We update our assumptions for working capital, capex and acquisition spend (minority shareholding in Chess in H1). Consequently, our FY23E net cash rises from £3.0m to £6.8m.
Our view: The shares have drifted off by 10% this month, which is an opportunity. Demand for Cohort’s advanced electronic, surveillance, counter-UAV and naval equipment has momentum as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the record order book and net funds of £11m provides a strong start the year. The stock is now on a CY22E P/E of 14.9x, a 16% discount to defence peers, and on a DPS yield of 2.6%. Our SoTP-derived 12m TP rises to 640p from 620p due to the improved cash position, offering a forecast total return of 33%. Maintain Buy.