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25 Sep 2025
Cohort : FY cover of c.90% - Buy
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Cohort : FY cover of c.90% - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,197 -191.5 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 562.4m
- Published:
25 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
6 -
FY outlook: Expectations for growth in FY26 are unchanged and, in line with previous years, with a weighting to H2. Trading in H1 is expected to be slightly behind the strong comparative period. In Q1, a strong maiden contribution from EM Solutions was offset by a reduction in MCL’s activity, which was at a record level last year, and a weaker mix at both ELAC and SEA including the sale of the latter’s transport business in May 2025.
Strong balance sheet: As previously flagged, given capex in Kiel in H1 and the unwinding of the strong year end working capital position, primarily customer advances, H1 net debt of c.£30m is expected. Management continues to expect to close FY26 with net funds of £10m to £15m, providing firepower for further acquisitions, where their track record is strong.
Order book: Following contract wins of >£60m since the start of FY26, the order book on 20 September stood at >£590m, representing FY cover of nearly 90%. Optimism for significant orders is rising, particularly post DSEI.
Our view: The order book and pipeline look healthy. We are encouraged by the strong start at EMS and to see Andy Smith (ex-Leonardo) has taken over as MD at CHESS. His production experience can help execute on a significant European pipeline with Rheinmetall air defence systems (recent press reports suggest Germany plans to buy 500+ Skyranger 30 Systems). Given recent NATO airspace incursions, this opportunity could be closer. Shares are on a forward P/E of 22.9x, falling to 20.3x in FY27E, and EV/EBITDA of 13.7x, falling to 11.6x. The CY26 P/E offers a 39% discount to the EU peer average of 35x. We reiterate our SoTP-based TP of 1750p, Buy.
Next scheduled event: Interim results in December (date tbc).