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26 Sep 2023
Cohort : FY24 cover at 93% - Buy
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Cohort : FY24 cover at 93% - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,250 450 3.0% | Mkt Cap: 587.3m
- Published:
26 Sep 2023 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Saul Larthe -
Pages:
6 -
Strong progress: An encouraging start to FY24 with contract wins of over £90m, including a recent £17.5m contract award to SEA. FY24 cover stands at a healthy 93% of consensus revenue, from 90% at the beginning of the year. The order book on 22 September stood at £370m vs £329.1m at y/e, up c.12.4%. Following strong UK MOD activity last year, momentum has continued in Q1, with a good pipeline of long-term order opportunities in naval systems and support work from the UK MOD and in export markets.
Outlook: Management expectations are unchanged and FY guidance is consistent with our existing forecasts. Positive net funds expected at y/e FY24.
Estimates unchanged: We forecast flat earnings this year to 36.5p, which may prove conservative, then a return to mid-single digit growth in FY25E based on the strong order pipeline and visibility. We estimate margin accretion in FY24E and FY25E, and net cash positions of £10.3m and £12.4m respectively.
Deployable B/S: Net funds at the end of August stood at £15.2m vs £15.6m at y/e. The Group’s cash and readily available credit at Q1 provides significant headroom for current anticipated commitments and likely future acquisitions.
Our view / valuation: We attended a very busy DSEI show two weeks ago. Trade sentiment is bullish. Cohort stands out as a long-term beneficiary with exceptional visibility. The balance sheet continues to provide optionality. The shares YTD have been relatively weak (almost flat), unjustified considering the fundamental performance and improved visibility. The shares are trading at 7.7x CY24E EV/EBITDA and 8.8x EV/EBIT, a material discount compared to the 5-yr averages of 10x and 12.2x, respectively.
Next catalyst: Interim results in December.