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20 Sep 2021
Cohort : Healthy cover at Q1 - Buy
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Cohort : Healthy cover at Q1 - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,210 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 568.5m
- Published:
20 Sep 2021 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
6 -
Good progress - Order wins since 1 May of over £85m, including recent contract wins for ELAC, MASS, SEA and MCL, have grown the order book to just under £300m as at 16 September. FY revenue cover now stands at a healthy 82% from 64% at the beginning of the year. At this stage last year, cover stood at 83% and at 76% in the prior year.
In-line despite challenges - While some of the pandemic-related delays highlighted at the prelims have persisted and global supply chain challenges have arisen, FY guidance is consistent with our existing forecasts. Management continue to expect FY trading performance for 2021/22 will be slightly ahead of last year, and to have zero net debt at year-end.
Estimates unchanged – We forecast low single digit earnings growth this year to 34p and a return to high single digit earnings growth to 37p in FY23E based on current orders for long term delivery and strong pipeline of opportunities. We forecast zero FY net debt, consistent with guidance.
Firepower - Net funds at 31 August stood at £3.3m, compared to net funds of £2.5m at 30 April. The Group's cash and readily available credit at Q1 was just over £43m providing significant headroom for current anticipated commitments and any corporate activity.
Our view / valuation – We observed a busy stand at the DSEI show last week and believe prospects are strong. The AUKUS announcement may be beneficial longer term. Meanwhile, the balance sheet provides significant headroom and the stock has increasing rarity value within this consolidating sector. The shares trade on an attractive CY22E P/E of 16.1x, EV/EBITDA of 9.9x, FCF yield of 5.7% and DPS yield of 2.3%. TP 690p.