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25 May 2023
Cohort : Material cash beat - Buy
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Cohort : Material cash beat - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,239 -123.9 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 582.1m
- Published:
25 May 2023 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Saul Larthe -
Pages:
9 -
Results summary: In FY23 the Group returned to growth with contributions from both segments. Trading performance was slightly above expectations. Order intake grew 17% y-on-y to c.£218m. The closing order book of >£325m provides exceptional visibility with deliveries out to 2032. The order book underpins 84% of consensus revenue for FY24 (c.78% of our new FY24E revenue estimate). Strong UK MOD demand offset weaker performance in Portugal, and weaker performance in EID negatively impacted margins in the Communications and Intelligence (C&I) segment. Chess performance improved; the Italian Submarine programme for ELAC Sonar supported growth, but margins remained low whilst in the design phase. Overall, strong growth was seen across the Sensors and Effectors (S&E) segment.
FY24 Outlook: Expectations maintained. Growth expected in S&E driven by Chess and increased deliveries of Naval systems. C&I is expected to trade in-line with FY22/23 as EID’s performance is expected to be offset with UK MOD sales dropping back to normalised levels.
Estimate changes: We increase FY23E/24E/25E revenue by 9%/6%/6%, but take a conservative view on operating margins. We upgrade our FY23E net cash position by £9.7m to £15m, from £5.3m, and upgrade FY24E/25E by £1.9m.
Our view: Rising geopolitical tensions are driving demand for Cohort’s secure communications and sensor technology, and there is outer year upside risk. The balance sheet continues to provide M&A optionality (net funds of c.£15m).
Valuation: Cohort offers good value in the shrunken listed defence sector. On CY23E, the shares are trading on an EV/EBITDA of 7.9x, below the 5-year average of 10x, and at a discount of c.20% to the average of UK defence peers. Our SoTP-derived 12m TP is unchanged at 700p, implying >40% upside.