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21 May 2020
Cohort : Relatively resilient, but a pause in growth - Buy
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Cohort : Relatively resilient, but a pause in growth - Buy
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,232 -197.1 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 578.8m
- Published:
21 May 2020 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
7 -
FY20 in line: The year-end update signals adj EPS of 35p is in line, aided by a lower tax rate. Trading was broadly in-line prior to COVID disruption in the last two, busiest, months of the year to 30 April. As a result, revenue of c.£133m and adj EBIT of c.£18m were 10% and 5% below our forecasts respectively; suggesting a stronger exit rate underlying margin, pre-disruption. Net debt was better at c.£5m as UK MoD has accelerated payments and represents just 0.3x EBITDA. Given this, the Board expects to recommend a final dividend.
FY21 outlook: The order book at 30 April of c.£186m underpins c.£83m of revenue in the current year, representing c.60% of expected FY revenue. Liquidity of c.£25m includes c.£5m of facility headroom, which should be ample. COVID has meant it is difficult to give detailed guidance, but at this point expectations are for FY21 trading performance to be in line with FY20.
Changes to estimates: We reduce FY21E adj EBIT by 10%, to £18.2m. Adj EPS is reduced by 15% as we now expect an increased tax rate and higher minority interests. We cut FY21E net debt to reflect expected cash neutrality.
ELAC acquisition: The proposed acquisition of this Germany-based market leader in surface ship and submarine sonar systems was announced in December. Discussions with the German regulator are ongoing, but have been delayed due to lockdown restrictions. Completion had been expected in June which is likely now delayed 2-3 months. The acquisition is not reflected in our forecasts, but we note it could represent c.5% accretion in FY21E.
Valuation: Our SOTP based TP of 600p, from 640p, reflects new estimates. We remain encouraged by a number of significant new domestic and export opportunities, and extensions to existing contracts across the Group.
Notice of results: FY20 Prelims are expected in July.