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27 Sep 2022
First Take: Cohort - AGM update – increased order cover
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First Take: Cohort - AGM update – increased order cover
Cohort plc (CHRT:LON) | 1,221 97.7 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 573.7m
- Published:
27 Sep 2022 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Thomas Rands, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
Record order book – now over £300m, giving 95% FY23 consensus revenue cover
Having entered FY23 with a strong order book of £291m, contract wins totalling over £70m since then (1 May to 20 September) have pushed this to a new record level of over £300m. The visibility that this larger order book provides is now 95% (up from 90% at 28 July) of FY23 consensus revenue (FactSet FY23 consensus revenue £162.5m, INVe £161.1m).
The recent £70m+ of contract awards include the £34m win for maritime specialist Systems Engineering & Assessment (SEA) announced on 7 September.
Higher UK MoD activity but supply chain shortages continue to cause delays
There has been a higher level of activity from the UK MoD, especially at Marlborough Communications (MCL), which is now expected to deliver significant y-o-y growth this year.
There remain some impacts from supply chain delays and price increases, especially in advanced communication systems specialist EID. There have also been some order delays at EID which has led the Board to now expect EID’s performance in FY23 to be weaker than that seen in FY22 (FY22A £0.9m, INVe FY23E adj. EBITA £1.2m). We expect this EID profit shortfall to be at least covered by the stronger MCL performance. We leave our headline forecasts unchanged across all years.
Strong net cash as expected
Net cash at 23 September was £7.2m, down from the FY22 level (£11.0m), and in line with the run-rate implied in our FY23E forecast. The decline is mainly due to the timing of working capital movements. We maintain our £5.4m FY23E net cash balance estimate, with an expectation that cash balances will be managed carefully given the increasing interest rates.
Maritime Capability investor presentation
CHRT will today host an investor presentation on the Group’s maritime capability, starting at 2:45pm. It will focus on current global defence markets and the offerings from SEA and ELAC Sonar. No new material will be disclosed.