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30 Nov 2023
CMD 2023: a turning point, though less so for the share price

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CMD 2023: a turning point, though less so for the share price
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON) | 1,154 -11.5 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 97,137m
- Published:
30 Nov 2023 -
Author:
Sanson Tristan ST -
Pages:
14 -
A highly expected communication event
Rolls-Royce held a crucial investor day, representing a turning point in the group''s history, as it is entering a new phase of performance development. The direction of the strategy confirmed the main insights shared so far: a focus on optimizing the returns at businesses where Rolls has the strongest competitive advantage (Trent and Pearl engine families, Transport, Combat, Subs, etc.), mostly through better leverage of pricing power, efforts to optimize the durability of products in service and cost reduction, and a reduction of exposure (RandD cuts, divestments, partnering strategies) elsewhere, including the exit of Rolls-Royce Electrical.
2027 targets beat consensus, mostly on cash
Rolls-Royce chose to formulate its ambition via a set of targets for 2027 (group EBIT at GBP2.5-2.8bn, FCF at 2.8-3.1bn), underpinned by divisional margin ranges and a few operating metrics (flight hours, engine deliveries at 300-350, 1,100-1,200 shop visits including 700-750 major refurbishments, 40% time on wing increase for civil engines). While the bottom of the EBIT range is in line with consensus, the bottom of the FCF range beat expectations by 25% (Visible Alpha), reflecting a jump in LTSA advances (GBP0.8-1.2bn annual tailwind, vs GBP0.5bn guided at previous CMD) as Rolls expects engine flight hours to continue to grow and support costs to be contained.
Now for the delivery: a few milestones lacking to track annual progress on execution
After a significant rally year to date, we think that the Rolls-Royce share yields small upside based on our prudent methodology (forecast increased to the bottom of the 2027 target ranges, 2025-based SoP, yielding a TP upped to 285p). The choice of a high-level message by Rolls has a drawback in our view: the lack of detailed graphs quantifying the annual impact of specific drivers over the coming years will make the tracking of its execution complex. We think it could take some time...