2020 results provided more visibility on the medium-term cash recovery Rolls-Royce''s FY20 results led to no change in the 2021 FCF outlook at GBP(2)bn. While in itself this may be somewhat reassuring, we could see a c. GBP300m headwind to this outlook materialise if flight hours were to stagnate yoy, a scenario which has grown in probability over the past month. The key news from the release was the clarification that the GBP750m+ FCF target as early as 2022 was conditional on a return to 80% of 2019 EFH, vs. 90% initially. While timing of cost savings seems to be a key offset for lower flight hour assumptions, the announcement still allayed some of the concerns about short-term headwinds. We also welcomed the disclosure on FCF evolution, which help understand how the group could move to solid cash generation beyond 2022, and possibly reach above GBP1.5bn. Is another rights issue needed? Possibly not, but short-term outlook still risky During the conference, management displayed confidence in their current liquidity level (GBP9bn excluding a further GBP1bn extension of the UKEF part-backed loan), which should be more than enough to weather even the group''s downside scenario. We also wonder how firm the company''s target of returning to investment grade rating around 2023 is. Should the group give itself more time, the risk of another rights issue would be greatly reduced, we think. Still, some risks remain over the short-term of moving towards the group''s downside scenario or failure to deliver on the ITP disposal, thus forcing Rolls-Royce to seek more equity. Neutral reiterated as we wait for more visibility on the traffic uptick We have updated our estimates to reflect a slower return to shop visit volumes in Civil, impacting mainly 2022 EPS, offset by a slightly stronger performance in Power Systems, thanks to margin expansion beyond the 10% level previously expected and, from 2023 a stronger recovery in IAE royalties. We slightly tweak...