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05 Aug 2021
First Take: Rolls Royce - Confident tone

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First Take: Rolls Royce - Confident tone
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON) | 1,154 -11.5 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 97,137m
- Published:
05 Aug 2021 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
4 -
CEO Warren East and new CFO Panos Kakoullis delivered a confident message in their prepared remarks. While it is now clichéd to say, management are controlling the controllables. Restructuring is progressing well, which resulted in an operating profit in the first half of £307m, which compares favourably to the significant first half loss last year, and against our expectations. Sustainable cost savings of >£1.3bn are confirmed as on track for delivery by the end of 2022.
While there are always a large number of moving pieces within the Rolls’ Group free cash flow number, a first half Group outflow of £1.17bn was ahead of our expectations, and with the exception of unknown timing of customer concession payments, Rolls’ cashflows should be less volatile going forward. Predictability should also be further aided by simplified reporting, albeit we note this has been an objective for some time and accounting treatments such as the LTSA creditor balances are a function of the operating model.
While the timeline for a stronger recovery in large civil engine flying hours (EFH) is slipping to the right, and Rolls’ cash flow target with it, this was already priced in, given the rather bleak industry outlook for international air travel, with consensus expectations for free cash flow in 2022 already below that target level of £750m in a twelve month period when large civil EFH recover to 80% of 2019 levels, which is now expected to occur beyond calendar 2022. Recovery in domestic and business aviation markets provides encouragement that international air-travel will resume as travel restrictions are eased. However, management reinforced that returning to 2019 levels of EFH is not likely to occur until at least 2024 or 2025. Such a recovery is likewise beyond the FY24 horizon of our forecast period.
Rolls’ target for at least £2bn of proceeds from its disposal programme is starting to be realised, with the sale of the marine engines business, Bergen, announced earlier this week and Rolls’ confirming yesterday that it has entered exclusive talks with a Bain-led consortium for ITP Aero, the largest piece currently on the block. This morning’s announcement also highlighted that disposal of the Civil Nuclear Instrumentation & Control business is expected later this year. Despite the UK A&D sector’s current M&A purple patch, we wouldn’t expect Rolls to play a significant role; with further non-core, relatively small, disposals as the most likely portfolio actions as the Group looks to achieve net cash and investment grade credit in the medium term.