This content is only available within our institutional offering.

28 Feb 2020
First Take: Rolls Royce - FY19 EPS & FCF ahead, outlook positive ex-COVID19

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
First Take: Rolls Royce - FY19 EPS & FCF ahead, outlook positive ex-COVID19
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON) | 1,076 64.5 0.6% | Mkt Cap: 90,676m
- Published:
28 Feb 2020 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
4 -
FY19 results: adj. EPS 15.9p vs consensus 13p albeit wide range
Revenue in line with consensus and our estimate at £15,450m; organic constant currency growth + 7%.
Underlying Op. Profit 13/23% ahead of INVe/cons, at £808m; underlying margin of 5.2% (INVe: 4.6%, cons. 4.3%).
Adj EPS of 15.9p – c.18p pre-IFRS16 vs INVe 18.3p, cons. 13p (range 8.8p-16.5p) effective tax rate came in at 47.9%.
Final dividend of 11.7p, flat on FY18.
FCF £873m vs INVe £686m (cons. range £567m-£776m). Flat inventory YoY (in line our expectations) should be taken well.
Net cash £1,361m vs INVe £989m.
Key highlights: Signs of progress in Core businesses
Civil Aerospace: Record 510 widebody engines delivered, widebody OE loss down 14% to £1.2m. 7% growth in large engine installed base flying hours. Market share on new widebody orders of 64% in the year.
Defence: Strong book to bill of 1.6x, record £5.3bn order backlog.
Trent 1000: Guidance unchanged from November update.
Outlook: Positive, albeit excluding any impact from COVID-19.
2020 ambition remains for £1bn FCF (INVe £911m) and medium-term FCF/share >£1.
Following build rate reductions, widebody engine delivery expectations for 2020 now 450, 400-500 per year medium-term.
Our view
Strong performance on profit and cash in the year, and unchanged guidance, should be taken well, albeit outbreak of COVID-19 represents a macro risk and is likely to have an impact on air traffic growth in the near term.
We continue to have concerns around long-term value creation given widebody build rates and risks to market share.
Results presentation at 0830: webcast: https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors/