Ebro plays its cards right

Ebro did slightly better than the guidance given three months ago. The year was clearly driven by the first half, the third and fourth quarters having encountered many challenges which are expected to continue in FY23. Despite this, it can be said that Ebro does not feel too bad about the situation.

Less glorious than during the Covid period (logical)

Ebro had held up well up to this point but we were not that surprised to see a relatively poor Q3. The group is facing a lot of pressures that are likely to continue in the coming months.

Still highs... and lows

Easy comps have driven up the H1 results, but the environment remains tight and Ebro expects lower H2 demand which should in the end not help the rest of the year.

Ebro vs. distributors

A strong performance in Q1 (better-than-expected) is welcomed given the more cautious tone of the company for the following months.

Not so bad !

9m FY21 figures were obviously down vs. FY20 (strong negative comps), but they were still remarkable compared with FY19. We expected very complicated management of inflation for the group, but we see a rather good surprise on that side. On the other hand, we should be more cautious about 2022, when the current hedging will roll off.

Tough comps, but still progressing vs. 2019

Unsurprisingly, we see a decrease in the results compared to 2020, but still good progress compared to 2019, which confirms the good trajectory of the group.

Tough comps but the momentum remains strong

With no surprise, Q1 FY21 top and bottom lines declined due to tough comps. The momentum remains, however, strong looking at CAGR 21/19, but input cost inflation is now the main threat looking forward.

2020: Ebro's year

Unsurprising very strong FY20 results (but still even more than our expectations). We believe Ebro is at a turning point and we continue to be positive on the stock.

Maintained positive momentum

Although the figures showed greater volatility, the rise in demand triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate Ebro’s results. Deleveraging is well on track.

COVID-19 pushed up Q1

After a strong set of FY19 figures, Ebro’s Q1 benefited from COVID-19 due to increasing rice and pasta consumption. Q2 should be even better, while we expect a gradual return to normal starting in Q3. EBITDA is affected by raw material prices increase, but the group is confident that the FY20 bottom line should be better yoy.

Investments pushed up growth...and net debt

A strong set of FY19 figures, especially thanks to strong comparables. We note that organic investments had begun to bear fruit, although the company doesn’t expect to see the relevant impacts until 2021. In the mean time, it is actually debt that is going up.

Strong boost to its results… and its net debt

The group reported a strong set of Q3 FY19 results, beating analysts’ expectations on the bottom line. Ebro’s investments finally pushed up growth… as well as the group’s debt.

Disappointing FY18 set of results

FY18 Key Financials : Group sales grew by 5.6% to €2,464m (on organic basis: +2%) EBITDA fell by 13.4% to €311m, with currency having a negative impact of €4.4m EBITDA margin declined by 2.6 pp to 11.7%. In Q4: 14% EBITDA margin Net profit fell by 36% to €142m, while the FY17 net profit was positively driven by the tax-related measures approved in the USA, France and Italy (one-off extraordinary income of €56.5m). Excluding this external effect, net profit fell by 14% FY18 Net debt/EBITDA

Q3: challenging cost structure

Q3 update: Sales are up 11%, however, the EBITDA margin contracted by 340bp due to the Rice business which was impacted by higher raw material prices (mainly in North America) as well as a weaker Pasta performance and higher logistics costs in the US. By division, Rice recorded +16% in sales and a 516bp EBITDA margin contraction to 9.2%. Pasta recorded +7% in sales and a 316bp EBITDA margin contraction to 9.8% (in Europe, Pasta consumption was negatively impacted by the hot weather, the group e

Q2 disappoints

H1 update: revenue grew by 2.3% (+5.5% in Q2), whereas EBITDA contracted by 16.6%. The EBITDA margin stood at 11.2%. By division, the Rice business’s sales were up +2.6% in Q2, whereas the EBITDA margin contracted vs. Q1 to 12%. In Pasta, sales were up +8% in Q2 (partially helped by easier comps) while the EBITDA margin stood at 11.1% (vs. 11.8% in Q1). Net profit for the period is down 17.1%.

M.P. Evans - Another strong year

MP Evans has delivered another strong year driven by an excellent crop and production performance and the continuing strength of the CPO price. However, profits are a tad below our top-of-range forecasts due to higher-than-expected cost pressures, namely fertiliser and the cost of buying in fresh fruit bunches (FFB), but cashflow and the dividend is better than forecast. Current trading is encouraging with production performance and the CPO price ahead of our assumptions. FY22 cashflow performan

Sparkling growth

Chapel Down is a market leader, which is asset backed and offers multiple years of high growth. This is evidenced by FY22 finals with adj. PBT +22% to £1.7m. A generational shift to the growing popularity of English sparkling wine and premiumisation trends make for an attractive investment case. We forecast PBT to more than double by FY26 from the current asset base. Thereafter, our illustrative analysis shows deployment of new capital towards attaining 5% of the addressable market by FY32 (vs 2

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 30 Jan 23

30 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 01 Feb 23

01 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

SHORE CAPITAL - Cranswick+ (CWK, House Stock, 3014p) - A robust end to FY23 expected; well set for FY24

Steady progress in line with expectations

Carr's Group - Details of FY22 performance

Carr’s Group has released its audited results for FY22, having previously issued a detailed trading update in February giving preliminary financial metrics on FY22 performance. The shares were suspended from trading in January because of delays in publishing these results. The company has applied for them to be restored to trading.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 01 Mar 23

01 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

SHORE CAPITAL - Cake Box Holdings+ (CBOX) - House Stock at 117p - Appointment of Chief Financial Officer

SHORE CAPITAL - Cake Box Holdings+ (CBOX, House Stock at 109p)

LIBERUM: Cake Box* - A tough period in H1 but the outlook is much improved

N+1 Singer - Anpario - Strong H2; in line FY results

Anpario’s full year results are in line with expectations, following a strong and improved H2. The group is still in a transition phase, building strong commercial relationships with end users and appointing regional teams, and we believe the group will continue to grow as a result. Anpario currently trades on a 2017 EV/EBITDA of 11.7x, going to 10.8x in 2018. We feel this is an undeserved discount to its peer group (c.17.8x 2017 EV/EBITDA). We remain at Buy.

Modest forecast changes; remain at Hold

Anpario’s full year results highlighted a period of strong growth with momentum reportedly continuing into 2018. The group remains focused on building strong commercial relationships with end users and we expect the initiatives to help the group deliver our 11% sales growth estimate in 2018. We make modest adjustments to our forecasts this morning and increase our Target Price by 2p to 434p. We remain at Hold.

A Midsummer Day’s Dream…..

SHORE CAPITAL - AG Barr+ (BAG) - House Stock at 517p - Taking full control of MOMA Foods